In the war against Ukraine, Russia is running out of options for how to proceed. At this stage, Vladimir Putin's plan seems to be to consolidate control over the territories his army has already captured..

For a Russian autocrat, annexation is an extreme way out of this war. But he, most likely, will not use this option for the time being, writes the German edition of Focus.. Ukrainian authorities have recently started talking about the beginning of the third stage of Russian aggression. At the first stage, the Russian army tried to quickly capture all of Ukraine in a few days. However, after the failure of this plan, she moved on to the second stage, during which she tried to surround and defeat the main forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass.. But even in this, the Russian forces failed..

At the new third stage, the Russian army is going to defend itself in the territories that it managed to capture earlier. Therefore, in Kyiv they believe that this indicates Moscow's intention to wage a long war.. Obviously, the Russian government believes that if the war drags on, it will force the West to sit down at the negotiating table on Russian terms, and Ukraine to surrender..

The publication notes that at this stage it is not clear what the meaning and purpose of such Putin's tactics are.. Even if Russia can force everyone back into negotiations, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy recently made it clear that he would not agree to peace if it meant new borders..

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“If we return everything that belongs to us, we will end the war,” he said on Wednesday..

But this result does not suit Putin. The end of the war without territorial gains will mean its complete bankruptcy inside Russia. Therefore, according to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the only way out for the Russian autocrat is to annex. Military experts believe that Putin will try to integrate the occupied Ukrainian territories in the east and south into the Russian Federation in the coming months. This applies to parts of Kherson and Zaporozhye regions in the south, as well as Donetsk and Lugansk regions in the east, controlled by the Russian army. Also, Moscow may try to annex the separatist enclaves it has created in other countries: the so-called PMR in Moldova and South Ossetia in Georgia..

There will be no imitation of holding referendums, as in Crimea in 2014. The reason is simple: why do something like this, if no one recognizes such falsified “votes” anyway.. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov recently said that the annexation of Kherson “should have absolutely clear legal justification and legitimacy, as was the case with Crimea.”. ISW experts believe that after the annexation, Russia will launch mass persecution and repression in order to curb the population and take the territories under tight control. Access to information will be replaced by Russian propaganda. Internet connection will be made only through the Russian network. The economic life of the occupied territories will be transferred to rubles. In addition, people will be kidnapped, executed, and Ukrainian officials will be replaced by Russian collaborators.. Partisans and activists resisting the occupation will try to liquidate. All this is already included in the Kremlin’s well-established scheme for the occupation and establishment of control over the territories..

In this process, according to experts, Putin will directly or indirectly announce that the Russian nuclear doctrine applies to the annexed territories too.. This means that an attempt to liberate the annexed Ukrainian regions will be regarded by Russia as an attack on its territory.. This means that the Kremlin will consider that it has a legitimate right to use nuclear weapons.. The ISW believes that the implementation of plans for annexation will depend on how Putin assesses his military strength..

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The declared goal to take control of the entire territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions has not yet been achieved. Experts doubt that the exhausted Russian troops are even capable of performing this task.. If Putin draws the same conclusions, perhaps he will quickly move on to the annexation process in order to threaten the Ukrainian Armed Forces with nuclear weapons if they launch a counterattack in the annexed territories..

However, the Russian autocrat may believe that his army is still capable of capturing a large territory.. In this case, he will not rush to annex the captured Ukrainian regions to Russia. Putin may try to mobilize more troops to increase his army. However, now the risks for Russia are high. If Putin delays the annexation, not correctly assessing the situation, he will lose the occupied territories. Ukraine has the opportunity to liberate these regions. Ukrainian counterattacks could push back the Russian army, breaking all Kremlin plans for annexation. In this case, Russia's "