On May 9, the world closely followed Vladimir Putin's speech on Red Square. But he didn't say anything unexpected. The Russian autocrat never declared a general mobilization, as well as an open war against Ukraine. Now in all the capitals they think what will happen next.

Focus notes that Putin even softened his rhetoric. He spoke of the historic mission of " But the Russian autocrat never revealed his cards.

Schonke Nitzel, a military historian at the University of Potsdam, says Putin said what he had to say.. But overall, his rhetoric doesn't matter at all..

“Putin is doing what is not expected of him. There has always been a big difference between what he says and what he does.. Military actions have more weight,” the historian explained, adding that the announcement of mobilization in Russia is still possible.

Retired Bundeswehr General Harald Gujat also says he didn't even expect any major announcements from Putin.. He believes that " His troops stretched from Donbass to Kherson and Crimea. And keeping these territories is no longer an easy task.. Because, despite all the parades and demonstrations of strength, the Russian army only proved how weak it is.. She is too disorganized, demoralized and demotivated to win the war with Ukraine.

Foreign policy expert from the University of Cologne Professor Thomas Jaeger does not believe in large-scale mobilization in Russia.

“The Russian army is now available only to young conscripts and a draft reserve. They would rather weaken the army than strengthen it due to lack of motivation and combat experience.. The numbers on paper are very different from reality in relation to Russian capabilities,"

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Nominally, Russia has a million-strong army. But about 200 thousand of its soldiers are already at war with Ukraine. And the rest are not suitable at all and are not even intended for battles.. They deal with administration, maintenance and logistics. The situation is similar with weapons.. As in the Bundeswehr, only a small part of Russian tanks, aircraft and ships are really combat-ready.. In addition, the Russian Armed Forces are drowning in corruption, due to which a significant part of the equipment is also not suitable for use..

“Now about 10% of Russian soldiers have died and even more are injured.. Therefore, the Russian authorities have reason to believe that the general mood among the population is very bad,” Yeger said..

In his opinion, it will be very difficult to mobilize reservists and conscripts under the current circumstances.. At the same time, he is convinced that the Russian army will not leave Ukraine.. She will continue to rely on her firepower.. So, according to the German expert, it will be a long war of attrition..

On the other hand, the head of military intelligence of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov, believes that Russia was going to announce mobilization on May 9. But Putin did not. Does this mean that he fears the mood of his own people? Or will he still send conscripts and reservists to the front? Putin can't be trusted. You should not be tied to specific dates, waiting for when mobilization will or will not occur in Russia. Before the start of the Russian invasion, Western intelligence services also gave very specific dates.. However, Russian aggression began two days later than everyone predicted..