How Ukraine did the impossible and changed the world

04 May 2022, 10:29 | Policy 
фото с Зеркало недели

Time is one of the most difficult philosophical categories. It is difficult even to give a universal definition of what it is. But on the other hand, we know for sure that time can be killed, lost, found, spent, given, pulled. After February 24, we learned that time can also be compressed. It's also relative: the time it takes to secure varies depending on which side of the NATO door you're on..

Between February 4, when the leaders of Russia and China signed a joint statement in Beijing on key international issues, and a meeting of more than 40 defense ministers of the countries of the democratic camp at a military base in Ramstein on April 26, 80 days passed.. But they fit an eternity. An attempt to present the declaration of Moscow and Beijing as the outlines of a new world order fell through without taking off.. On the other hand, three days for the capture of Kyiv turned into more than two months of heroic defense with tragedies that could not be imagined and victories that no one but us expected.. The transformation that the collective West (this slightly inaccurate term means both the real democratic West and the no less democratic East) underwent during the two months of the war would normally take decades, and some events might never have happened at all.. But time flows differently now.

And we are talking not only about the unprecedented scale and volume of arms supplies to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, many of which were introduced for the first time in history, but also about conceptual changes in the worldview, strategic planning and rethinking of the geopolitical situation in the world that are taking place before our eyes.. In the near future, a new US National Security Strategy and its Indo-Pacific part will see the light, a similar document will be revised in Japan, and another (but hardly passing) NATO summit will be held. The EU has found a weakened voice, and the UN seems to be finally losing it.

Accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO? The transition of the army of Ukraine to the standards of weapons of the North Atlantic Alliance? Revision of the National Security Strategy of Japan towards a more active role of the Self-Defense Forces of the most peaceful country in the world in the event of a military threat? Further tightening of sanctions against the Russian Federation by Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan, now \? Belated but still German decision to provide heavy weapons to Ukraine? Europe's refusal from Russian energy carriers? Questionnaire for Ukraine as an EU candidate country? Grinding for scrap a third of the combat-ready units of the \? A little over two months ago, all these now quite real things would have raised doubts at best. Today, only one question remains: when exactly will all this happen..

In the ideological sphere, the former authorities of international relations were also disgraced, none of whom could foresee the scale of the current catastrophe.. Some even now continue to go crazy, predicting " There are those (and their number is growing) who, with pleasure and enthusiasm, find explanations for what is happening, although at the same time, without shame and conscience, they contradict their own statements made very recently.. Well, to slightly paraphrase one of Murphy's laws, it must be admitted that no matter what unexpected event happens, there will always be someone who will say: I always knew that this is how it would happen..

There are tectonic shifts in the economy. Unexpectedly “local”, as some pro-Kremlin experts like to present it, the conflict – that is, Russia’s war against Ukraine – resulted in a significant increase in energy prices, food, reorientation of supply chains and reformatting of relationships in the field of finance and trade at the global level. It is extremely curious to track how the events of the future are formed at cosmic speed, but in real time (it seems to be really compressed).

This war gives humanity a chance to demonstrate the wisdom, unity and cohesion, faith in which has been lost in two years of covid. The virus has not gone away, but no one, except for the residents of a completely blocked Shanghai, remembers about it - a bit strange, isn't it This war must be a moment of profound awareness and decisive change.. It is time, as the famous prayer goes, to have the courage to change what can be changed, accept what cannot be accepted, and finally learn to distinguish one from the other..

Ukraine was in the center of everyone's attention not today and not in 2014. Back in 2004-2005, the entire democratic world admired the potential for a peaceful Orange Revolution. And then Yanukovych became the head of Ukraine. In 2014, freedom was paid for with the lives of the Heavenly Hundred, the loss of Crimea and the occupation of part of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The world shuddered, but took only half a step forward, exactly as much as we could move forward.. February 24 the war changed everything. We did the impossible. And the world began to answer the same.

And it's not just about the supply of weapons and sanctions. Shortly before the war, at the climate summit in the UK, they agreed to reduce the consumption of hydrocarbons in order to reduce the process of catastrophic climate change.. Okay, that moment has come.. You just need to look at it from a different angle now.. During the two months of the war, India bought 26 million barrels of Russian oil. That's more than all of last year.. Cause? Very good discounts from Putin. Effects? A little later, India will be forced to spend the saved money on new weapons (but hardly from Putin) due to the growing destabilization in the world caused by Russian aggression, or on food that is rapidly rising in price due to the same aggression.. This is just one example. It's time to realize that the embargo on the purchase of heavy Russian oil is not a loss of profit, it is an investment that will pay off many times over.

Russia destabilizes energy markets by either demanding payment in rubles or cutting off supplies in violation of contracts. A logical and quite reasonable consequence is the restructuring of the supply of liquefied gas and oil along alternative routes, but not only. It is important to resume discussions about a possible return to nuclear power in countries that have previously abandoned it. It is necessary to triple efforts on hydrogen energy with the exclusion of Russia from these processes (so that no one doubts that it very actively increased its presence in such projects before the war). Vespasian said " As it turned out, money smells - only of oil and gas. This is best seen in the examples of Schroeder, Warnig, Voscherau and others.. It's time to put an end to political corruption in this area.

China, India, and other Asian countries are watching with concern the airfall arranged by Ukrainian air defense masters, as they obeyed Russian emissaries and bought billions of Moscow weapons. Now some of the buyers had to think hard about their defenses.. Needless to say, linking to arms suppliers also means political affiliation, and the redistribution of the defense product market also entails the transformation of the technological base? But even worse, and this is the conclusion that countries whose security is in their own hands can draw, only the possession of nuclear weapons guarantees peace of mind from the encroachments of restless neighbors.. Because the law doesn't work. How many more wars must Russia start before it is kicked out of the UN Security Council or at least stripped of its veto power?

Being in Asia, you feel a little more acutely such an aspect of the modern world order as historical insults. The " And if you listen to the arguments that sound from this side of Eurasia, then the integral point of view can be formulated as follows - an equal approach to security is needed, regardless of where the conflict occurs..

In this context, it is somewhat strange that, after the establishment of international courts, the next step was not taken - the adoption of relevant international codes.. Why is the decision of an ordinary court in a criminal case against an individual found guilty entails automatic punishment, determined by the article of the relevant code, and when a crime is committed by an entire state, nothing like this happens? After all, in the Indo-Pacific region, and in the Middle East, and in Latin America, interstate grievances are still present and dozens of conflicts are smoldering, which in some cases may well acquire a huge destabilizing potential. If the decision of the International Court of Justice to recognize a particular country as the instigator of an unjust war (as happened with Russia) automatically meant the application of the most severe sanctions, blocking participation in international organizations, trade embargoes and asset freezes, then many potentially hot spots on the planet could be. The victim of violence should not beg for justice, it should be guaranteed, and on an equal basis to all. Alas, the reality is that today the most effective retribution for aggression is war, which means the right of force. Have you noticed that each subsequent demoniac dictator is worse than the previous one

It is humanly possible to change this state of affairs.. We can't let the next.

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Read all articles by Sergei Korsunsky here.

Источник: Зеркало недели