Almost 8 weeks have passed since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine. The Russian army has suffered heavy losses, and Russia has found itself in an unprecedented international isolation.. Now a small, but every day more and more, group of people doubting the correctness of the decision to start this war has appeared in the Kremlin..
Bloomberg writes about this, adding that disgruntled representatives of the ruling elite occupy high positions in the Russian government or in the management of state-owned companies.. They are convinced that the invasion was a catastrophic mistake that will set Russia back for many years.. This publication was told by 10 sources who directly know about the situation in the Kremlin. All interviewees agreed to speak on condition of anonymity due to fear for personal safety..
According to them, there is no chance for Putin to change his course yet.. And in Russia no one is going to challenge him. Increasingly shrinking the circle of his most reliable and tough advisers, Putin has rebuffed all attempts by Russian officials to warn him of the high political and economic costs of war.. Some Russian officials told Bloomberg reporters they share US intelligence's fear of Putin's decision to use nuclear weapons if his " Support for the war against Ukraine remains strong among much of the Russian elite. Many insiders, in public statements and private conversations, repeat the Kremlin's assertion that conflict " And that the economy is adapting to sanctions imposed by the US and allies. Public support for the war is also strong. Therefore, despite all the turmoil due to sanctions, a certain surreal stability remains in Russia..
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However, a growing number of Kremlin insiders are convinced that Putin's desire to continue the war will condemn Russia to years of isolation and increase tension to such a level that it will destroy the Russian economy, its security and global influence.. Several oligarchs made veiled statements questioning the Kremlin's strategy. But many influential players are too scared of the crackdown to speak publicly about their displeasure.. Skeptics were surprised by the speed and scale of the reaction of the US and allies, who froze $ 640 billion of reserves of the Russian Central Bank. And also the fact that foreign companies overnight canceled investments for decades and stopped all their operations.. No one also expected that Kyiv's military support would be so stable in resisting the Russian offensive..
Several high-ranking Russian officials tried to explain to Putin that the impact of the sanctions would be devastating and effectively wipe out 20 years of economic development.. The higher living standards in Russia that emerged under Putin's rule will also disappear.. But the Russian autocrat dismissed all these warnings, saying that although Russia would pay a heavy price, the West left no choice but to start a war.. Publicly Putin said that the " And the Russian economy is adapting to sanctions. He still believes that society supports him. And the Russians are ready to make sacrifices for years to his vision of national " Putin stubbornly wants to continue the war, even as the Kremlin had to scale back its ambitions to a battle for control of the Donbass. However, Putin is convinced that if Russia agrees to settle for less, this will leave it "
A few weeks after the start of the war, Putin's circle of advisers and contacts was further reduced.. Two sources told the publication that the Russian autocrat speaks only to a small group of the toughest advisers he has spoken to before.. The decision to go to war against Ukraine was taken by Putin himself and only a few hawks, including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov, and Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev..
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Critics see no sign of Putin's readiness to end the invasion, given the casualties, or make the concessions needed for a ceasefire.. Due to his dominance in the Russian political system, alternative views are only circulated in private conversations.. Restricting access to information led to big miscalculations by the Kremlin at the beginning of the war. Moscow expected that the majority of Ukrainian officials and the military would go over to the Russian side. They also expected speedy military progress.. Putin also underestimated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, considering him weak. Oligarch Roman Abramovich, who brokered so far unsuccessful negotiations, had to convince Putin that Zelensky had stayed in Ukraine and had not fled at the beginning of the invasion.
The FSB is growing confused over the failure of the invasion, as Russian expert in the issue of special services Andrey Soldatov says. Moscow expected the war to last only a few weeks at most..