Vladimir Putin is preparing a massive military operation to try to capture at least a small part of the territory in eastern Ukraine. So he hopes he can justify his failed war against Ukraine.

“I thought: who could give him better advice now? My choice was one of the top teachers of strategy, the recently retired John Arkville, professor emeritus of defense analysis at the US Naval Postgraduate School.. When I called Arkvilla and asked what he would say to Putin today, he did not hesitate: “I would say: negotiate peace, fool! This advice is also known as the first rule of a hole: if you are in it, stop digging, ”writes journalist and three-time Pulitzer laureate Thomas Friedman in the New York Times..

Arquilla didn't take his advice from the air. After the landing in Normandy on June 6, 1944, it quickly became clear that the Germans were not able to contain the Allied breakthrough.. After the failure of the German counterattack near Cannes on July 1, German Field Marshal Gerd von Rundstedt called Berlin to inform the army commander Wilhelm Keitel about this.. He asked: “What should we do now To this, Von Rundstedt replied: “Negotiate peace, fools! What else can you do?

Von Rundstedt was fired the next day.. Putin did the same, appointing a general who helped defeat the opposition movement in Syria with particular cruelty to command the second phase of the war against Ukraine.. It didn't work for Germany during World War II. And Arquilla explains why Putin's army is again facing strong resistance from the Ukrainian army during the second phase in the Donbass.. He points out few new features of the Russian-Ukrainian war that will determine the future of fighting in general..

“From many points of view, this is the Spanish Civil War of our era. Then the Germans tried out many new types of weapons, including Stuka bombers and Panzer tanks.. The Allies also learned from that war just before the start of World War II.. The same thing is happening in Ukraine when it comes to a new generation of warfare methods,” said an American expert who wrote the book “Blitzkrieg: New Challenges of Cyber \u200b\u200bWarfare”.

“In this book I have described three new rules of war. And Ukrainians seem to stick to each one of them. First - many small ones beat one big and heavy. The Ukrainian Armed Forces operate in small tactical groups armed with high-precision weapons. They break up large Russian formations and attack slow and loud helicopters.. So even if Russia has a quantitative advantage, Ukraine has many small and very active formations,” he explains..

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The second rule, which is confirmed in the war in Ukraine: " Whoever is able to detect the enemy first will be able to destroy him first. This is not difficult to do if the enemy consists of several large formations like 40-kilometer columns of armored vehicles.. Naturally, drones are now helping to identify such targets.. But the main asset of the Ukrainian army, according to Arquilla, is “informal intelligence”. Grannies with mobile phones give better results than satellites. Everyone with a camera in their hands is collecting useful information about where the Russian troops are going.. This gives an advantage to the Ukrainian army, which defends itself on its territory and thus receives real-time intelligence data..

The third rule: " According to Aquila, war is no longer a matter of numbers and numbers.. You no longer need to have a numerical advantage to defeat your opponent. Enough smaller combat units with advanced weaponry.

" And everyone who moves behind him misses the opportunity to maneuver. And then they are also destroyed,” the expert explained..

Will Russia be able to take into account its mistakes before the second phase of the war against Ukraine? Arquilla is convinced that Moscow will continue to resort to mass bombing. And in the Donbass she will do it even more massively.

" Remember Stalingrad,” he said, recalling that the Nazi army completely destroyed the city, and then tried to enter the ruins in small groups to seize the territory. Their plan failed.

According to Arquilla, Russia will still try to adapt, as it did during the war against Finland in 1939-1940.. Then the Finnish troops defeated the Soviet offensive. However, the aggressor retreated, regrouped into more mobile groups and resumed the offensive..

“As far as I understand, Russia will activate its marines, which are used to conducting operations in small groups,” he said, explaining that in the next phase of the war, the Russian army will rely more on infantry than on armored vehicles..

But, according to the expert, Ukraine will still have an advantage due to the ability to quickly identify enemy positions in order to strike.. The Russian army remains very centralized.

“One of the reasons why the Russians have lost so many generals is because at the tactical level they don’t have people empowered to make quick decisions.. Only generals can do it. Therefore, they go to the front lines to do the same work that lieutenants and sergeants do in the US Army, ”the expert said..

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Regarding the Russian Air Force, Arquilla noted that “we have already seen how vulnerable all these planes and helicopters are to Stinger missiles.. They will not affect the course of the next phase of the war." The expert noted that his assessments do not mean that the Russian army will be finally driven out of Ukrainian territory.. However, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already adapted well to the rules of the newest war and will not allow themselves to be defeated either.. What will happen next? Who knows.

“I still hope that stupid Putin will eventually reach an agreement that will allow him to save face and will provide for the withdrawal of Russian troops. Occupied Donetsk and Lugansk will receive some kind of status, and Ukraine will refuse to join NATO. However, Kyiv will join the EU, and will also receive guarantees that will protect it from a new Russian invasion, ”the author of the article writes..

“The longer the war goes on, the tougher the Ukrainian resistance becomes thanks to the methods of warfare that they were the first in the world to use.. But Putin suppressed Russian society, forcing it to obey. The Russian army, humiliated on the battlefield, is also unlikely to rise up against him.. So, probably, Putin is not under the pressure of time to de-escalate, ”explained Arkvilla.

Recall, Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed the commander of the Southern Military District of Russia, General of the Army Alexander Dvornikov, commander of troops in Ukraine.

Its main task will be to improve coordination and win at any cost until May 9.

Dvornikov, 60, was the first commander of Russia's military operations in Syria since Putin sent troops there in September 2015 to support the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad..