A month after the attack on Ukraine, the Russian army does not control a single large city in the country, and the offensive on Kyiv and Nikolaev has practically stopped. Kharkiv and Mariupol, which are under continuous shelling, also do not surrender.

The only regional center captured by the Russian army remains Kherson, whose population even before the war did not reach 300 thousand..

What to expect from the next stage of the war?

The BBC collected the opinions of experts on the situation on the fronts and asked them to share their forecast for the future.

“Not as fast as we would like” The Kremlin and the Russian Defense Ministry claim that the “special operation” is going according to plan - but not even all Russian officials confirm this. The operation "

The unhurried pace of the Russian offensive is now recognized even on state television. Pro-government commentators explain this by concern for civilians - supposedly the Russian army could move faster, but deliberately delays.

All independent experts reject this version as one: numerous destructions of residential areas and hospitals in Ukraine are confirmed by international organizations.

Now the theater of operations can be divided into three conditional fronts, of which the Russian offensive has bogged down on two, says Michael Kofman, director of the Russian program at the US Center for Naval Analysis..

On the first of these fronts, near Kiev, the Russian army is trying to strengthen its position, but so far it has not succeeded in encircling the Ukrainian capital, and a new offensive is also unlikely to be planned in the near future, Kofman writes..

The offensive from the Crimea, where the Russian army achieved the greatest success and was able to capture the regional center of Kherson, is also bogged down, and does not pose an immediate danger to Nikolaev and Odessa, the expert believes.

Refusal to storm Kyiv and Odessa?

“In the near future, we will not see an amphibious landing in Odessa or a throw of the Russian army into Transnistria - or maybe we won’t see it at all, at least at this stage of the war,” Kofman writes..

Rob Lee, senior fellow at the US Foreign Policy Research Institute, agrees..

" If they try to land, Ukrainian forces may open artillery fire on Russian ships,” Li said in an interview with the BBC..

Li cites an anti-tank missile system attacking a Russian Raptor patrol boat near Mariupol on Tuesday as an example of such a scenario.. The corresponding footage was published by the Ukrainian regiment "

Russian forces may not have enough personnel to land in Odessa, according to the Conflict Intelligence Team.

“All Russian marine brigades deployed to Ukraine are involved in combat in one way or another,” her report says..

Lee believes that the losses suffered by the Russian army forced Moscow to narrow the objectives of the operation, and at the moment the Russian offensive does not pose a direct threat to Kyiv. As for the future of Odessa, the fate of neighboring Nikolaev may become a key factor there..

Fierce fighting took place near Nikolaev, however, according to Li, there is reason to believe that Ukrainian forces could repulse the offensive and even go on to counterattack.

He suggests that at this stage, the Russian army may abandon attempts to take the city: this is indicated by the fact that the Russians withdrew their aircraft from the Chernobaevka airfield, located under occupied Kherson.

According to satellite images, several Russian military helicopters were destroyed at this airfield..

Mistakes of the Russian army “From the very beginning, the Russian military efforts lacked concentration. Too many forces were concentrated on different offensive lines, ”Kofman believes..

Rob Lee suggests that the atmosphere of secrecy in which the attack on Ukraine was being prepared led to a lack of necessary coordination between the branches, branches and units of the troops involved in the offensive..

Any large-scale military operation requires officers to think through and prepare a huge variety of options for action, and this simply cannot be done in the absence of details of the plans of the central command..

“Russian troops started the war with ambitious plans - and tried to achieve everything at once. They went to Kyiv, went to Odessa, went to Mariupol, tried to surround Kharkov and Sumy. But they did not have the strength for this, ”the expert believes..

Lee points out that Russians don't even always encrypt their communications.. According to the US military, one of the Russian generals in Ukraine was killed after using a regular mobile phone..

According to the New York Times, Ukrainian intelligence intercepted the call, located the speaker and struck him..

The BBC has been able to confirm the deaths of several high-ranking officers, while Ukrainian forces are reporting at least half a dozen Russian generals killed, giving their names, ranks and positions.. The Russian side confirmed the death of Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky.

Rob Lee also notes that Russian troops do not control the airspace of Ukraine, which allows Ukrainians to supply their army units and replenish their personnel..

Various experts also agree that the Russian command greatly underestimated the morale and military training of the Ukrainian army..

" First, he underestimated his opponent. And second - he overestimated the ability and quality of his own army and his air force. Based on the information we're seeing, the Russians don't currently have overwhelming air superiority,"

Battle for Donbass?

Instead of trying to take Kyiv and Odessa, Russian forces will focus on the Donbass, trying to encircle Ukrainian troops in the area of \u200b\u200bthe Joint Forces Operation, Rob Lee believes.

" Russian forces can still inflict significant damage on the Ukrainian army, and the JFO area will be the most difficult area. However, Ukrainian resistance remains very strong,” Lee says..

The key fronts in the coming week will be Mariupol and the JFO zone, Kofman agrees. He expects that the Russians will try to pincer the enemy there by simultaneously attacking from the north and south..

The expert suggests that Moscow is looking for a reason to declare victory, and the seizure of Donbass could be just such an event.. And then the Kremlin may try to knock out concessions from Kyiv, using control over this territory.

\? Yes and no. Russian Forces May Slowly, Gradually Advance in Donbass. I suspect that the Ukrainian army can hold positions on most fronts, and possibly carry out counterattacks on some of them. However, exhaustion undoubtedly affects both sides,” Kofman concludes..