The likelihood of an amphibious landing in Odessa or the region is low, since almost all the deployed formations of the Russian marines are already involved in battles on the territory of Ukraine.

This was reported by the Conflict Intelligence Team " This, in turn, means that for a full-fledged landing with the forces of at least a brigade, it will either be necessary to transfer marines that have not yet been involved for a long time, or to return already battered armored personnel carriers to the Crimea from mainland Ukraine, or to land with motley forces from several different brigades.

In addition,... this will require at least an exit of ground forces to Odessa from the north, and this is still a rather distant threat.

Thus, we consider the likelihood of an amphibious assault in Odessa or the region to be low, although such a possibility still cannot be completely discounted"

Analysts note that on March 15, naval analyst X. Sutton said that part of the ships of the Black Sea Fleet, which had previously returned to the Crimea, again advanced in the direction of Odessa. On the morning of March 21, the Odessa authorities reported that Russian ships fired at several households.

The scenario of an amphibious assault with the aim of capturing Odessa appeared both on pre-war maps based on Western intelligence data, and on the invasion map, which was demonstrated by the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko.

At the same time, analyst Michael Kofman does not consider the landing possible until Russian ground forces approach Odessa, bypassing or taking Nikolaev.

" The fact is that, according to available data, almost all of the deployed units of the Russian marines are already involved in battles on the territory of Ukraine in one way or another,"