First the facts:.

Capital outflow from Ukraine on imports and payments on foreign liabilities and investments over the past 12 months (September-17-August-18) amounted to almost $ 16 billion..

This outflow was partially offset by the influx of money from guest workers (estimated at about $ 10 billion.

Result: NBU foreign exchange reserves for this period decreased by $ 1 billion.

On September 1, NBU currency reserves fell to $ 16.6 billion.

Most important: net foreign exchange reserves of the NBU dropped to $ 6.3 billion.

Accordingly, the coverage of the hryvnia monetary base with net foreign exchange reserves has been deteriorating since May 2018 and now stands at UAH 67 / USD.

This value of the exchange rate can be considered target for the market rate of the hryvnia, if Ukraine will not receive IMF loans.

It is also clearly understood that to stop currency bleeding from Ukraine, it is urgently necessary to drastically improve the investment climate or devalue the hryvnia..

But this is extremely unlikely in the run-up to the presidential (and then parliamentary) elections..

Consequence - the NBU will continue to lose foreign exchange reserves, which will worsen the ratio of the monetary base / net foreign exchange reserves.

And the stronger then the devaluation spring will fire, if, again, the investment climate in Ukraine is not quickly and qualitatively improved..

And I did not mention this about the threat of the approaching global economic crisis, which is getting closer and closer. His result will be a fall in income from migrant workers and exports. And devaluation will not be avoided..

Some useful numbers on the Balance of Payments of Ukraine.

The trade balance for the last 12 months (September-17 - August-18) reached MINUS $ 10.5 billion.

And over the past three known months (June-August), the worsening deficit accelerated to the pace of MINUS $ 15 billion / year..

Foreign direct investment over the past 12 months (September-17 - August-18) MINUS $ 2.1 billion.

And for the period June-14 - August-18, foreign direct investment amounted to MINUS $ 11.8 billion.

Portfolio foreign investments for the last 12 months (September-17 - August-18) MINUS $ 2.6 billion.

Total for the financial account of the balance of payments for the last 12 months (September-17 - August-18) MINUS $ 5.1 billion.

In sum, you can estimate if everything is as it is now, in the next 12 months, Ukraine will take about $ 17-20 billion from Ukraine. (12-15 on the trade balance and 5 on the financial account). They will be partially financed by guest workers' money ($ 10 billion.

This shows that without loans from the IMF, the US and the EU, Ukraine will be, to put it mildly, hard.

In December, I plan to hold a master class in which we will discuss the upcoming 2019 in detail..

PS. Take care of the cache. After the crisis there will be unique and excellent investment opportunities!.