Growing prices for black gold have a positive effect on the ruble exchange rate and the fillability of the treasury. But at the same time, expensive oil threatens to bring down the house of cards of the Russian economy. This is warned by Western analysts. To date, oil prices have broken through the level of $ 80 per barrel and continue to grow. Next year, they may exceed $ 100.

According to economists Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the situation on the oil market recalls 2008. , when for a rapid increase in prices for hydrocarbons there was a catastrophic collapse. Because of too expensive oil, the biggest importers of hydrocarbons from developing countries will be hit, which simply will not be able to buy them. These countries are already experiencing an outflow of capital and a sharp drop in the exchange rate of national currencies. High prices for black gold will lead to a real economic downturn in developing countries, which will provoke a global collapse, warns the "Free Press". In themselves, high oil prices will not raise the Russian economy. Even at $ 100 per barrel, GDP growth will be only 1.5%, warned in August the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina. We need structural changes, but this requires a lot of money. All superfluities from high oil prices are piled up in a pod and do not go for development. To distribute money to the population is simply not possible: when the cost of raw materials decreases, the amount of aid will decrease, and this will lead to a surge of discontent. Therefore, the most correct step will be to invest oil revenues in projects that will not disperse inflation, but will give an impetus to the economy. Russian experts recognize the existence of a threat of economic collapse due to expensive oil, but believe that it will be avoided. Director of the Energy Development Fund Sergei Pikin believes that oil prices will not grow beyond limits, since Iran, despite the sanctions, will not completely withdraw from the hydrocarbon market. But even if this happens, the rest of the suppliers will fix the volume. "That's why we will not see prices around $ 100 in the coming year," he said.. Analyst GK Finam Sergei Drozdov believes that the dispersal of oil prices to $ 100 per barrel is quite possible, but before the crisis is far away.

"The situation that has developed in the oil market is still very far from the one we observed in 2008. Nevertheless, if we look at the future prospects of the energy market, then, as a rule, at the end of the economic cycle, commodity prices are at fairly high levels. In this connection, large investment companies are reviewing their forecasts for the cost of oil upward, "- said the specialist. In his opinion, OPEC will be able to avoid repeating the scenario of ten years ago, when oil was declared an undervalued asset and its value jumped to $ 149 per barrel. It is necessary just to take timely steps to increase the production of "black gold".