The ruble continues to remain in a relatively stable position. But by autumn the dollar will rise sharply and overcome the mark of 70 rubles. The main factor in the fall of the national currency will be a decrease in buyers' interest in Russian securities and trade wars involving the United States. At yesterday's auction on the Moscow stock exchange, the dollar and the euro moved synchronously, but in different directions. The American currency has fallen in price by 12 kopecks, to 63.11 rubles, and the European one - has risen by the same amount and now it costs 73.79 rubles. The weakening of the national currency to the euro lasted all week. It is connected with the strengthening of the "European" to the basket of currencies after the EU leaders reached a new migration agreement. This trend will continue for some time. With the dollar, the situation is more complicated. The ruble is strengthening against the US currency due to its general weakening in the foreign exchange market and the growth of oil quotations. Currently, the North Sea standard grade Brent is trading above the level of $ 78 per barrel - it's very close to the recent high of $ 79.3 per barrel.

Oil futures retain medium-term growth potential. High oil prices will continue to support the Russian currency, but if it decreases, the influence of oil quotes will weaken. At the same time, the ruble is also affected by negative factors.

First, exporters behave very discreetly in the foreign exchange market (that is, they do not buy rubles) after the end of the tax payments period. Secondly, the RF Ministry of Finance continues to strangle the domestic currency with interventions: the surplus of oil revenues is transferred to dollars and is postponed for a rainy day. Perhaps the greatest danger to the ruble and other currencies of developing countries is the trade wars. "The focus of market participants remains the topic of US trade relations with other countries, as well as the publication of the report on the labor market in the United States. On Friday, the US will introduce tariffs for the import of goods from China. Chinese customs warned of retaliatory measures. New Chinese duties on American products will begin to operate immediately after the entry into force of tariffs in Washington. The trade war will negatively affect the risky assets and the ruble, "- says Alpari analyst Vladislav Antonov. This will lead to the fact that in the very near future the ruble will begin a prolonged decline, which will last for some unknown time. As a result, by the fall, the dollar can reach 70 rubles, and the euro - 77 rubles. "In the medium term, against the backdrop of a seasonal decline in current account indicators (export and import of goods and services, net investment income and net transfer payments), conversion of dividends paid by Russian corporations and a decrease in interest from non-residents to Russian government bonds, exchange rates will tend to overcome the upper border ranges, "- explained the currency strategist of the TeleTrade Group Alexander Egorov.