Next year, the Russian Federation will face serious economic problems. This fact does not deny even the authorities. Experts predict the domestic economy period of stagnation. The number of Russians who save on essential goods will increase dramatically. The Ministry of Economic Development yesterday published a forecast for the next year, according to which inflation in Russia will accelerate to 4.3%, GDP will grow by only 1.4%, and real wages will grow by less than 1%, "Newspaper. Ru ". It's all the fault - an increase in the tax burden. The State Duma has already adopted in the first reading a bill on increasing VAT from 18% to 20%. "The next year is expected to be quite difficult in terms of adapting to the decisions taken in the field of fiscal policy," the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade noted.. Specialists of the ministry point out that the negative effect of the VAT increase will be manifested this year, but inflation will be kept at the level of 3.1%. Next year, the contribution from tax increases to inflation will be 1.3 percentage points. Independent experts are sure that the Russian economy will have an even more difficult situation. First of all, officials underestimate the impact of VAT on the value of products. The general director of the company "Mani Fanny" Alexander Shustov says that they decided to increase VAT, because this tax is easy to collect and exact. "But the fact is that it is included in any supply chain of the goods several times, and its increase will have a multiplier effect on prices. So, an increase in VAT by 2 percentage points may cause an increase in prices of an additional 4-5 percentage points in addition to the overall inflation rate. As a result, both VAT and the "inflation tax" will have to be paid to all households and all enterprises, and this will expand the gray market and reduce the overall motivation for entrepreneurship in the country, "the expert is convinced. Officials insist that price increases will not affect socially important goods. But this is not true: the production and sale of such products is associated with a number of counterparties, one of them will pay an increased VAT for raw materials, some for logistics. All this will affect the cost price. Therefore, the rise in price is inevitable. Real inflation will be much higher than the promised MED 4.3%. The list of goods and services for which official inflation is considered raises a lot of questions. Even now, with inflation of 3.1%, Russians feel it as 8-9%, Finam analyst Alexei Korenev says. If, in addition to tax factors, other troubles are added, for example, increased volatility of the ruble, prices will generally be sky-high. The increase in VAT will force the business to save more "on the development of capital productivity and the renewal of fixed assets," said Mikhail Krylov, director of the analytical department of Golden Hills-Kapital AM. That is, the salary will be raised much less often. According to the chief economist of BCS Global Markets, Vladimir Tikhomirov, at least in the first quarter of next year, real income growth may slow to zero and even go into negative territory. This means that the Russians next year will stop making major purchases. The last surge of consumer activity will happen before the New Year, and then, in the face of rising prices, citizens will begin to save and postpone purchases of durable goods for more prosperous times. Because of the reduction in consumption, the entire economy will rise. "The Ministry of Economic Development in its forecast proceeded from fairly conservative estimates of the impact of changes on GDP dynamics. Since the changes that are being made will affect consumption, namely, it is one of the main factors of economic growth in Russia, GDP growth rates may be below 1%, "concluded Bogdan Zvarych, vice president of the Guild of Financial Analysts and Risk Managers.