Until the end of this year, a significant weakening of the ruble will not happen. It will stay near today's values. This forecast was made by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. Today, on July 4, the agency published a survey "The Picture of the Economy", which contains a forecast for the exchange rate of the national currency until 2024. If you believe the officials, the average annual rate of the dollar this year will be 60.8 rubles. This is lower than the current figures: according to the Moscow Stock Exchange, now a unit of US currency is 62.19 rubles, which is 21 kopecks less than a day earlier. Here there is no contradiction: the average annual rate by definition will be less than that which will be established at the end of the year. Since January, the ruble has lost 8%. It is the solid indicators of the first months that provide a decent average annual figure of just over 60 rubles for $ 1. Experts moderate the weakening of the ruble by "global pressure on the currencies of developing countries". At the same time, "the effect on the mood of investors introduced in early April 2018. an additional package of sanctions measures has now been exhausted, "the report says.. If nothing unforeseen happens in the coming months, the ruble will feel quite confident and comfortable. In the next six years, the national currency will weaken by more than 10%.

So, in 2019 year. the average annual value of the dollar will be 63.2 rubles, in 2020. - 63.8 rubles, in 2021 g. - 64 rubles, in 2022 g. - 64.7 rubles, in 2023 g. - 66.3 rubles, in 2024 - 68 rubles. Now the US currency is at the crest of success, noted in the Ministry of Economic Development. Strengthening the dollar against other world currencies is caused by higher growth rates in the US compared to the euro area economy, tightening of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System, as well as increased volatility in the financial markets of individual developing countries.

Investors began to trust more "green". But the situation will change soon. Before 2024 year. there will be a gradual weakening of the dollar against the euro "as the influence of the stimulating budgetary impulse in the US is exhausted and the monetary policy of the European Central Bank is normalized". So, to the European currency, the ruble depreciates even more. If we take into account the near future, then in the coming weeks the state of the national currency will be stable - due to the absence of external stimuli like trades and macrostatistical outputs. The normal range for the domestic currency is currently 62-63 rubles for $ 1. A noticeable change in the foreign exchange market can not be expected until the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve, scheduled for July 31-August 1. If the financial authorities are going to mitigate monetary policy, this will mean that the promised four-time increase in the discount rate this year will not take place.

This may reduce the attractiveness of the dollar in the eyes of investors, and the overseas currency in this case will weaken.