On the eve of the currency section of the Moscow stock exchange, the Russian currency sank to the dollar by 0.4%, to 63.1 rubles. , and to the euro - by 0.2%, to 73.6 rubles. However, this is far from all the "joys" that the foreign exchange market prepares for us. The next one was shared by experts of Raiffeisenbank in the analytical review for June. According to their calculations, during the whole recent period, Russian banks have been rapidly losing their foreign currency reserves. So, if at the beginning of the month the banks were available about $ 8.1 billion, then by the end of the year the "currency stash" fell to $ 1.7 billion. The banks did not have free currency liquidity, the survey authors summarize. In the currency part of the balance sheet, the outflow of funds on client accounts was only $ 1.5 billion, which is much less than $ 10.6 billion in April, when corporations passed the peak of payments on external debt. And this despite the fact that banks have released $ 3.3 billion from lending, which means that banks had an inflow of foreign currency liquidity in terms of credit and deposit operations. However, all this did not prevent them for some reason significantly reduce their investments in liquid foreign currency assets by $ 5 billion. As a result, the volume of highly liquid assets decreased by $ 4.5 billion, which led to a fall in the stock of foreign exchange. Thus, despite the high oil prices, in May, the conditions for the formation of a currency liquidity shortage arose in the system. "The reason for what is happening is obvious," explained Vice-President of the Golden Mint House Alexei Vyazovsky. - First, it is buying up the currency by the Ministry of Finance. Thus, he tries to support budget revenues without giving the ruble to strengthen. "According to the expert, at current oil prices, the dollar to ruble rate should have been around 55 rubles a long time ago. , instead of testing a two-month minimum at levels above 64 rubles. per dollar. "Secondly," added Vyazovsky, "the accelerating outflow of capital from the market of Russian government debt continues to play its role. Here, too, the situation is clear. After the World Cup, investors expect an aggravation of the geopolitical situation and new sanctions. The same is waiting for the Central Bank, selling US Treasury bonds. In such a situation, market participants in advance run out of domestic debt securities ". What are the likely consequences of what is happening? "We believe that the ruble is more likely to show the dynamics towards weakening," analysts of Raiffeisenbank note in their review.. - We are waiting for the weakening to 64 rubles after the end of the current tax period ". Will this lead to a currency deficit and an even sharper increase in its value? A single answer to this question does not exist. The ruble still remains under the influence of two oppositely directed factors. On the one hand, this is a continuing threat of massive sell-off by investors of assets of developing countries, including Russian. As stated yesterday by the investment bank Goldman Sachs Group Inc. , he intends to reduce the position on the currencies of developing countries.

Concern is due to the fact that the escalation of the US trade war with Europe and China will grow into a global recession. In this case, the positions of Russia and the ruble will be seriously threatened. On the other hand, the oil market continues to grow against the background of the expected withdrawal from Iran and Venezuela. As a source in the US Department of State told Bloomberg, Washington began negotiations with key Iranian customers in the oil market about the need to reduce purchases to zero when new US sanctions come into effect. All this gives oil, and with it and the Russian ruble certain chances.