On June 3 in the Baltic States and Poland, NATO military exercises Saber Strike with the participation of more than 18 thousand troops from 19 countries. At the same time, Poland has already stated that it is considering a proposal for the deployment of a permanent contingent of American troops. How is the relationship between the West and Russia worsening, with what a big European war can begin, what place in the current confrontation is Ukraine occupying and why the Kremlin is seriously afraid of strikes against Moscow and St. Petersburg? The Russian military columnist Pavel Felgenhauer told the Apostrophe.

The Poles want to have an entire American division stationed on a permanent basis. But it is still not at all clear whether the Americans will agree to this. And while there is no reason for this. Why? If the base is created, the fundamental charter Russia-NATO is violated, where it is written that the serious forces of the alliance will not be located in the new territories.

Yes, after 2014 (and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the "Apostrophe"), some forces are stationed there. But formally they are on a rotational basis, that is temporarily. There is no permanent accommodation to not formally violate the charter with Russia. And the contingents are rather small (up to 1000 people). That is, there is talk about some tactical reinforced battalion groups or the American brigade, which is smeared on the front for thousands of kilometers.

Washington's position in response to the proposal of Poland has not yet been fully understood, because Trump is by definition an isolationist and relies on isolationist forces. He already said about Syria that American soldiers should go home. So all the talk that an American base will appear in Poland ... Yes, Moscow also says a lot about this, since it is advantageous for the war party that Western forces appear there to be able to say that the American tank division will now go to Moscow. And the American Panzer Division is a serious force.

We must understand that since the Cold War in Europe there are no more American connections that were to engage in a terrible battle with Soviet troops that will break through to the Rhine and the Channel. They left Germany before the fall of the USSR: in 1990 they went to war with Iraq and did not return there.

Now in Europe there is only one American brigade from the combat tank units. Plus there are small forces on a rotational basis, joint battalions from NATO countries. But this is still a small force.

At the same time, the Americans are making plans for a sharp increase in the event of a worsening of the situation: for example, to transfer groups of up to 30,000 soldiers. But this does not mean that there will be a base in Poland, because it runs counter to the political ideology of the current US administration: Europeans must deal with their own problems, and Americans have nothing to do there.

In Moscow, they will be wildly pleased with the appearance of the US base in Poland. After all, now the military is saying that a group is preparing to invade Russia, and this is not close. Therefore, military leaders have to inflate a serious threat. After all, if there are additional grounds, then it will be possible to demand more money from [the head of the Accounting Chamber of Russia Alexei] Kudrin and [Finance Minister Anton] Siluanov.

Deterrence policy At the summit of the defense ministers of the NATO countries (in June) they finally agree on the plans, and in July they will be formally adopted at the NATO summit in Brussels. That is, NATO is moving to a real deterrent to Russia: plans are being prepared to strengthen American groups in Poland and the Baltic countries in case of an aggravation - and these are new headquarters, because we have to carry troops from Texas, Oklahoma. There will be a lot of questions - to prepare the infrastructure (repair bridges, tunnels, etc.), develop detailed plans for the transfer of troops. In general, there is a lot of organizational work to ensure a relatively rapid transfer of forces. The meaning of deterrence is as follows: if Russia goes to aggravation, then a transfer will begin in order to build up groups.

And the deployment of forces on an ongoing basis is not being considered, since the West is not yet ready to officially denounce the basic act with Russia.

In general, the all-European war is seriously considered by Western countries, real planning is underway. And not only NATO countries will participate, because in case of war in the Baltic States, Sweden will surely fight on the side of NATO. It is possible that Finland will also fight.

The West is preparing for war in the sense that if Russia knows that NATO is really preparing for war, then the Kremlin will think many times whether it is worth starting hostilities. For example, in Lithuania, already strengthening the brigade, which is called "Iron Wolf", in Sweden, restored the call, which was canceled. The same Baltic countries and Poland should strengthen their armed forces in order to help resist in the event of a Russian offensive.

At the same time, Russia can gather a more powerful group much faster, since strategic mobility and the transfer of large masses are practiced in large exercises like "Caucasus", "West".

The war is preparing everything. Another question is whether US permanent bases will be deployed, as it was during the Cold War.

What's next?.

At the NATO summit in July, a new deterrence strategy will be formally adopted, that is, plans for a massive deployment of troops in the event of a regional war on the eastern front.

Of course, there are still plans for Romania, but now the more dangerous direction is Poland and the Baltic States. If we talk about Romania, we must first go through Ukraine.

If we talk about the all-European war, in the coming year it will most likely not begin. But you can not say that the probability is zero. Everything can start with an incident. For example, in the skies over the Baltic countries, Russian and American aircraft will collide. They are constantly flying around. And the crisis may start. And then the implementation of plans for deployment and transfer of forces. At some point in Moscow, the military will begin to prove to Putin that it urgently needs to occupy the Baltic countries: when the divisions come from Texas, they will create such a powerful springboard that "we can not do anything". They say, it is necessary to prevent the Americans, otherwise they can capture Kaliningrad, will have the opportunity to attack St. Petersburg and Moscow. With this growing crisis, the pan-European war can begin.

For example, both sides are shifting their forces, and Russia is doing this faster on geographical grounds. But the West is potentially stronger than Russia: by population, by GDP, by military potential (NATO and allies), by economy, finance and resources in general. All this creates a potentially volatile situation that can lead to war.

However, there is another side to the coin. In Europe, no one wants to fight. Threatening each other is another matter. But since the parties will balance on the brink of war, then there is the option that someone stumbles. In the Cold War, this did not happen at the European theater, but it does not follow from this that this will not happen this time. This will increase the so-called proxy war, when the main front is not directly fighting, but are fighting on various flanks. Now it is the war in Syria, the conflict in Donbass. In the Kremlin, they are treated as proxy conflicts with America. The same things happened during the Cold War: Vietnam, Afghanistan, the Middle East, Angola and so on..

It can be hoped that in the end everything will resolve without a big pan-European war. But in Russia they formally consider the threat of a big war, as the chief of the General Staff has repeatedly said. And such a war can begin even tomorrow.

And we must not forget that after the end of the Cold War, the collapse of the USSR. The same is possible with Russia. And it is not only the publicists who talk about this. Siluanov, who is not only the RF Minister of Finance, but also the first vice-premier, said back in October that he was spending too much on defense, that last time it ended with the death of the USSR, and how would Russia not follow the same path. It is possible that Russia will experience a very serious crisis.