The ruble continues to grow stronger against the US dollar. The Russian currency successfully wins out all the negative factors and is fueled by a positive. However, ahead of it is not an easy test. If a trade war breaks out between China and the US, all the currencies of developing countries will be derailed.

During yesterday's trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange, $ 1 fell by 13 cents, to 62.06 rubles. For 1 euro in the meantime, gave 72.61 rubles: he strengthened over the past day by 4 kopecks.

The dollar has been steadily strengthening in the international foreign exchange market since mid-April. But now he had a correction. This was facilitated by the decision of US President Donald Trump to impose a duty on a number of goods imported from the EU, Canada and Mexico. This event set the tone of trading in the currency market for a week ahead.

The Russian ruble proved very worthy, withstood a protracted dollar attack. Over the past month and a half, he has never left for a mark of 63 rubles for $ 1, even against the backdrop of a noticeable pullback of oil prices from the maximum values ??of the year. Now, when the "American" began to become cheaper, the ruble is gradually gaining strength.

Strengthening the national currency is helped by the news received yesterday on a possible meeting between the US and Russian presidents at the initiative of the American side. Investors were optimistic about this move, suggesting that Washington intends to move from confrontation to a constructive conversation with Moscow.

"The bet is made that Russia will benefit from the negotiations. But the sanctions will not be canceled anyway, so the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump is more speculative news, "said Alpari analyst Vladislav Antonov.

At the same time, the ruble retains the traditional negative factor. Since June 4, the Bank of Russia, on behalf of the Ministry of Finance, has increased the daily purchases of foreign currency to $ 260 million. This is a record volume since the beginning of the implementation of the budget rule on the purchase of currency from the excess oil revenues.

In the coming days, the ruble will remain within the usual framework:.

61.5-62.5 rubles per dollar and 72.2-73 rubles per euro. But then the business can take a bad turn. The main risk factor for all international markets (and hence for the Russian foreign exchange market) is the outcome of the US-China trade relations talks. The parties previously decided to postpone the introduction of reciprocal import duties to try to negotiate in an amicable way. But if the negotiations end in vain, markets may panic.

Failure in the negotiation process can mean that the real trade and currency wars will soon be deployed between Washington and Beijing. This will lead to unpredictable and extremely negative consequences. The rub can survive a real shock.

This month, the fate of the Russian currency may also be affected by meetings of world central banks, including the Federal Reserve System of the United States, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Russia. "Probably, a meeting of the leaders of the United States and the DPRK will take place. The totality of all events and decisions and will form a "summer configuration" of interests in the foreign exchange market, "- noted the currency strategist of the TeleTrade Group Alexander Egorov.