Yerevan again rebelled - but this time the protest is not social, as it was in 2015 with Electromaydan, now it is political. Sooner or later it was supposed to happen, but then people did not realize yet that the nature of problems with high tariffs for electricity, for transportation is just political. It seems that now the society is ripe for real change.

I predicted something like this, that sooner or later Armenia will face political protests, but this scale - and protests are already nationwide - did not expect. Although, by and large, what is happening in Yerevan today is not exactly protests - rather, these are actions of disobedience, when people block state institutions, block roads. This is such a riot - moreover, a big riot. The shares covered almost the entire capital, and this is a city with a millionth.

Serzh Sargsyan, who served as president of Armenia for 10 years, contributed to the "ripening" of the protest, of course. In 2015, he initiated a constitutional reform, as a result of which the form of government changed from a mixed presidential-parliamentary to a parliamentary. And now, Serzh Sargsyan wanted to become prime minister, in fact - again the country's first man, as the president after the reform becomes in fact becomes "the English queen".

Sargsyan's intention was not liked by the people. Armenians say: not only that, these 10 years you have badly ruled as the president, and now you want to badly rule as prime minister! Leave! And this is a serious political demand - people crave the change of power, its renewal, want reforms, and with the same people it is impossible.

A week ago I doubted that the participants of the shares are determined. The last two or three months, various opposition parties and groups tried to organize rallies, but many people could not collect. However, Nikol Pashinyan, a member of parliament and one of the leaders of the very dynamic Civil Contract party, managed to find the right thoughts and words that mobilized people. Pashinyan is like the Armenian Navalny. He focuses exclusively on domestic policy, he states that against one man at the head of the country a hundred years. It looks very attractive for young people, and we, experienced people, like it too.

And the last three days of the rallies have become large-scale not only in terms of the number of people, they began to be of a national character. They began to take part people who have no relation to politics, they block, carry out the installation of Pashinyan. He managed to reach people. Second, there are a lot of civil activists in this movement who have great confidence in Armenia. Therefore it seems to me that the people believed, rose. And now I can say with certainty that Armenians are ready to seek Sargsyan's resignation.

The problem, however, is that the Armenian authorities are used only to suppress. They are not able to listen, be flexible, unable to dialogue. The country is gradually sliding down to rigid authoritarianism. And all this is done under the guise of a constitutional reform. But in fact, a lot of amendments are being adopted, which limit both the freedom of the media and political activity.

Moreover, when the parliament was debating whether Sargsyan will take the post of prime minister (elected by his deputies), he said it became obvious that the authorities do not realize or pretend that they do not understand the whole degree of people's discontent and their readiness to stand on their own. And all this resulted in the fact that despite mass protests, for his election as prime minister, they voted just like the USSR - amicably and without looking back at their own people.

Nikol Pashinyan today announced that "a revolutionary situation has been established in Armenia" and announced the beginning of a "velvet revolution". So far, events have really evolved in this scenario, but everything is changing very quickly. "Velvet revolution" may not work out.

There are serious concerns that the authorities will go on dispersal - otherwise they will not be able to cope with such a protest wave. A huge number of police officers and various special forces have already been dragged into Yerevan. Today I even personally saw an APC with a machine gun on a tower in one of the streets, a large number of water cannons and armored vehicles.

In some places already used force against protesters. Today there were a lot of detentions. I can not say how many, it's 100 or 200 or more people. They catch activists who peacefully protest, put in their cars and take them to an unknown destination. I was told that today there were many such cases.

There are also people like the titles that were used during EuroMaidan. There was a case yesterday morning, when the students who took part in the sit-in strike, were attacked by thugs in civil. According to our information, relatives of high-ranking officials. In Armenia, crime is fused with the authorities, therefore among officials there are direct people from the criminal world. In general, we already observe point violence.

If very strong force is applied to accelerate, it can not be ruled out that there will be an "explosion". Eletromaidana was dispersed for three years, after which the number of protesters increased, but EuroMaidan failed according to the Ukrainian scenario - people thought that the problem was only in tariffs. But Sargsyan's return is very similar, it may be the very last straw.

Therefore, the likelihood of serious clashes between the protesters and the authorities is very high. Yes, all responsibility will fall on the authorities, yes, all Armenia will continue to slide down to authoritarianism. But I see such a very unfavorable scenario.

In addition, we must take into account that behind the back of Sargsyan - as was behind Yanukovych - the Kremlin. Russia still has a huge influence. The Kremlin has huge levers of influence on the ex-president and the current Prime Minister of Armenia. And how can it be otherwise, if Sargsyan gave Moscow all the energy of the country. Why did I give it, we can discuss it, but now 80% of Armenia's energy capacities are completely owned by Russia. Therefore, we are very dependent on Russia. And Serzh Sargsyan, and anyone else who will come in his place. Unfortunately this is the case.

I am sure that Moscow closely follows the events in Yerevan. Russia is very afraid of change. They have such an inferiority complex that any rallies are already a color revolution. They are afraid of losing control and influence - and in the Kremlin they are aware that Sargsyan, whom Armenians consider his protege, has very low ratings - and will try to help him stay in power.

In general, I do not expect anything good.

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