A little more than a month left before the main elections in the country - presidential elections in Russia. And since their results are predetermined with a probability of 99.9%, JustMedia experts. ru, not agitating for specific candidates, predict what the Russians should expect in the next six years. We asked the well-known political scientists, political technologists, deputies and officials simple questions to understand how the political and socio-economic life in Russia will develop. Will the new president take the path of liberalization or, conversely, will tighten the nuts? What is the fate of Dmitry Medvedev and the cabinet of ministers? And how will this term end - a successor or a change in the Constitution?.
Today for questions from JustMedia. ru is the director of the Institute for Systematic Political Studies and Humanitarian Projects, the head of the Ural branch of the Civil Society Development Foundation Anatoly Gagarin.
People predicting domestic politics in Russia after the March elections, divided into two camps. Some expect liberalization, others - tightening nuts. I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. There will not be any drastic changes in the rate, although the reforms that are now expected and planned will certainly occur, but without sharp movements left or right.
Regarding the management reform, a new managerial cohort will now be in demand. They are grown, but not as successfully as we would like. They must meet modern requirements of the system. Qualified personnel are needed, who could work in the conditions that exist now. For this it is necessary, on the one hand, to own the whole arsenal of the latest techniques, on the other hand, not to remain a dried technocrat. After all, society is oriented at us to social problems and, apparently, they are talking about the new "May decrees", which should be connected with new measures of social support. Therefore, for example, the pension system will be revised taking into account the person, not the system itself. We should focus not on norms, but on people. Actually, it will be said in the President's address. Because now the standards have obscured the person, there is a lot of signals from the places.
The system of state and municipal administration, as well as education, health care and, apparently, the sphere of social insurance and pensions. Judging by the statements already made by representatives of these spheres, it seems that there will be a revision and, in part, a return to traditional management systems with a focus on the positive that was under the Soviet system, but taking into account current trends. The mechanisms for ensuring the social guarantees of the population, apparently, will be taken from the old system, but, accordingly, it will be modified and applied to the modern market.
In health care in particular, I hope, attention will be paid to the social dimension, which is related to the availability of medical services. We used to go on the way of optimization and creation of FAPs, but our country is huge, and sometimes it's not enough. The system of feldshers and points of primary medical care in remote villages should be preserved and, it seems, already has to be restored, because it is very difficult to take a person to the FAP on our roads. It is necessary to "increase" the system of affordable medical care to the direct consumer living in a small village. While we have people not so mobile and motivated to leave for themselves in places where they will be provided with good medical care. As yet there is no recipe for solving this problem, because in each small village the paramedic will not be planted.
Unification of education leads to the fact that we lose quality. This applies to the USE, including. And it was planned that we will improve the quality of education by pulling students from remote places that have the opportunity to enter the large universities using the USE. But, by and large, this is - some kind of illusion. Therefore, we have a prepaid education that has captured the whole sphere, budgetary places have remained at a minimum. If we went back to a budget education, then there were some advantages. So far we see that all worthy and promising areas and specializations are paid. Therefore, people say that it is necessary to switch to the Soviet education system, to Soviet textbooks. Not for nothing are very popular on the Internet sites where you can download old Soviet textbooks, popularized literature, the same Jacob Perelman (not to be confused with Grigory), the author of "entertaining" books. People download them and start to learn, because it was a mature system. Apparently, some things need to be reviewed, do not chase the amount, do not do 50 different textbooks on the same discipline, so that the same topic to study in different schools in different ways. My children studied at different schools and everywhere there were different textbooks. I do not think it's good. We need a unified system that provides universal knowledge with the possibilities of experimental courses. Because it is impossible to follow all the authors who, for the sake of some novelty, can allow their own interpretations, are not very necessary. We need to develop a common educational base, then we will be able to get a high level of education. I think that the president, who will lead the country, will deal with these issues.
If we talk about the fate of the government, the first to reformat is the Ministry of Sport. Maybe it will be reformatted to the agency. This question is very important. Regardless of who comes, the question is on the agenda. Because we reap the fruits of that vicious system that now exists in this sphere. Our athletes win notwithstanding, not thanks to the system. Some changes have taken place in the Ministry of Economic Development. Apparently, it will also somehow be modernized or reformatted, some functions can be transferred to other ministries.
Personally, it's hard to talk, but changes are possible. Perhaps the appointment of some people who after a while will leave. Because it is extremely difficult to find personnel for certain tasks, personnel hunger is present. Will it be Medvedev's prime minister, while it's hard to talk. There are different versions, but I think that one should also take into account the opinion of Medvedev himself. The issue is debatable.
In foreign policy, a warming of relations with Europe is possible. Europeans do not like the inflexible US policy. There are some countries that are set to dialogue. First of all, it's Germany and Italy. They build relationships with Russian regions, including the Sverdlovsk region. Their businessmen come to us, they try to avoid sanctions, create joint ventures, participate in joint projects. Now, two agencies have raised our investment ratings, Russia has returned to the pre-sentiment indicator. This suggests that Western investors will actively cooperate with Russia, despite the sanctions. And America will have to work out a certain position. I think that after a while the economy should play its role, and relations must resume. Although there is a turnover now, it is not so small. But our orientation of switching attention to the east will continue.
It is still, as before, the Ukrainian question. While Ukraine retains the power structure that exists now, it is unlikely that anything will change. Some enlightened politicians will talk about the need to resume relations with Russia, but that comprador bourgeoisie, which is in power, is not interested in this, because it earns on confrontation.
What will end the six-year rule of the president, it is difficult to predict. I think there will still be a successor, although they are often talking about changing the constitution, and the question is in what configuration it will change. It is not excluded that it will not be the constitution itself that will change, but some relevant changes in the legislation.