He can not grow faster than 1.5-2% per year because of a number of restrictions. To such a disappointing conclusion came the specialists of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Gaidar in their new macroeconomic survey.

In their opinion, at least five reasons hamper the domestic GDP to be well dispersed against the backdrop of a cyclical recession and a rise in price of oil. The first factor is the completion of balancing in the labor market. The devaluation of the ruble in early 2015. and galloping inflation reduced the share of salaries in GDP, but then this trend unfolded in the opposite direction. Today, the costs of companies to work again increase the cost of production, the authors of the document. The second problem is investment in fixed assets, more precisely, their absence. The share of companies' profits in GDP is decreasing, but the accumulation of balances in their deposit accounts with banks. That is, money that could go to the development of production, a dead weight settle in financial institutions. The banks themselves are also in no hurry to expand lending to the real sector of the economy. The third point is the uncertainty of the government's economic policy after the presidential election and its implications for the business climate.

True, this threat is limited to the first quarter of this year. But there is another factor that is unsettling for investors, and it will operate all year - the risk of new sanctions from the US. The fourth limitation is strengthening competition in world commodity markets (not just hydrocarbons). This prevents export growth, even with an increase in prices for energy and other resources. And, finally, the last trouble is the exhaustion of export growth potential in agriculture. For three years the agrarian sector was on top:.

first thanks to the food embargo, then - favorable climatic conditions and record harvests. This allowed to complete a number of large investment projects in agriculture, started even before 2014. However, new projects because of the crisis became noticeably less, and without the import of modern technologies, the growth of yields is also slowing down, economists explained.. To this can add a global decline in food prices, which also slightly blurs the prospects for exports of agricultural products. However, its share in the total export of Russia is not so great that seriously consider this risk as one of the key, we note independent experts. In the aggravation of competition in commodity markets, they also do not see a particular threat. The world economy, unlike the Russian economy, is growing quite cheerfully, and the supply increase is compensated by the increase in demand. Of all the risks listed in the review, only two really look significant - the problem with manpower and the uncertainty about future economic policies and sanctions. It is this uncertainty that holds back investment. And everything else is just a reflection of the current structure of GDP growth. "Sanction policy takes us from 0.5% to 1% of GDP growth. And there are methods of strengthening it. Now it is on the brakes lowered. But in the event of an aggravation of the situation in Ukraine or elsewhere in the West, there are ways to press Russia, "said Vice-President of the Golden Mint House Alexei Vyazovsky. But sanctions are only a small part of the iceberg. They can still be taken into account in the business plan and somehow adjusted. The main problem is still in domestic economic policy. Investors simply do not have confidence that the current rules of the game will remain for the entire investment cycle, which, as a rule, is at least five years. And the main solution to this problem is the creation of favorable conditions for investment. First and foremost, this means the ability to build forecasts for business development against any macroeconomic trends. As for the labor market, Russia is already slipping into a demographic hole. Every year the number of economically active population will decline. Now this problem is being tried to solve by importing migrants from the nearest Central Asian countries. But their benefits to the economy are questionable, because they simply pump out money from it, sending home billions of dollars annually. At the same time, the professional qualifications of the majority of such workers are highly doubtful. "We have high employment, and if we talk about the growth of production due to the creation of new jobs, then we have very few workers today, and there are practically no skilled workers. This is indeed a significant limitation. This suggests that the conditional Chinese model "in every yard on the blast furnace" we probably will not work. We must focus on high-performance industries and the most advanced technologies, "said Professor of the Department of Financial Management of the Russian Energy Academy. Plekhanov Konstantin Ordov. But there are even more important things that determine the life of the country for decades, although the survey touches on in passing. "In their list, I do not see the main risk - the fall in commodity prices as a result of the policy of the US Federal Reserve," - said Vyazovsky. In his opinion, the current weakening of the dollar to major world currencies is a temporary phenomenon. If the new head of the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy, the US national currency will again rise in price. It will help to strengthen it and return capital to the country as a result of the tax reform of Trump. And the growth of interest rates and the dollar's exchange rate is not a very positive factor for oil. The expert predicts that by the summer the price of black gold may fall below $ 60 per barrel. And this is the number one risk for the growth of the Russian economy, which is all tied up with oil.