Every truism is doubtful. Is the earth shaped like a sphere? Does the Volga flow into the Caspian Sea? A person has two arms and two legs? Putin will remain president for one more term? It is difficult not to agree with each of these statements. But there is a nuance. The Earth is not a ball, but an irregular ellipsoid. The canal system, inherited from the USSR, connects the Volga with five seas. People with disabilities are also people. And with Putin everything is not so simple as it might seem at first glance, - writes Vladimir Golyshev in the column on "Radio Liberty".
His Nizhny Novgorod nomination of few people surprised. A good tone was considered sarcasm - they say, I also have news ". All recent Putin initiatives (from the "first-born" benefits to the withdrawal of troops from Syria) were interpreted exclusively in the pre-election key. One might think that Putin needs some special effort to get ahead of Zhirinovsky, Zyuganov, Yavlinsky or Sobchak!.
The only thing that could be a problem for him is a record low turnout, which is indicated by public opinion polls. The dynamics here are so disappointing that a turnout of less than 50% may well become a reality. And there are no effective tools to increase it in the presidential administration. Alexey Navalny's tour around the country, around which artificially created agiotage as a factor mobilizing voters, is much inferior to the "marsh protests" 2011-2012. "To die under Moscow" for such an insignificant occasion is somehow not with your hand. The car factory owned by Oleg Deripaska (GAZ) is not very similar to "Uralvagonzavod", and "volunteers (volunteers)" - to the All-Russian People's Front.
Yes, and the ceremony of nomination turned out to be some greased. For the first time in the new (Putin's) history, this was done not at the congress of the ruling party. Why? Maybe Putin is going to the elections as a self-promoted? No. A week passed, and the presidential press secretary answered evasively to this simple question: they say, Putin "has not decided yet". And with the head of the staff, Putin still did not decide ... In general, if we summarize all the misunderstandings, we will have to admit that the truth about the new Putin term is not so "capital", that there are possible options. What kind?.
Let's start with the fact that "benefits for the first-born" and the withdrawal of troops from Syria are very doubtful promises if Putin plans to remain in the presidential chair for another six years. But everything changes if these promises are not considered an overture, but a "dambel chord". In the end, Putin is the master of his word: he wants - gives, wants - takes back. And what if he has a remake of the Yeltsin stunt in 1999? This, at first glance, an absurd assumption should not be rejected from the threshold. Obviously, Putin is toxic from the point of view of international relations, and the presidency is, above all, high-level contacts.
Moreover, in the last weeks of the outgoing year, we witnessed unprecedented pressure on Russia in several directions: from new sanctions to banning the flag at the Olympics. Plus threats to deprive Russia of the World Cup. In this context, the impromptu in Nizhny Novgorod and the tour of the Middle East look like "our answer to Curzon". Maybe this is his last word, after which Putin will come down from the captain's bridge with his head held high? After all, strictly speaking, Putin did not put forward his candidacy. What we heard is just a declaration of intent ... Putin's transition to another job is not a new topic. Recently, more often called the State Council. If Putin leads it, there obviously will be a new decision-making center. So, the long-promised constitutional reform is inevitable. The powers of the next president (most likely Medvedev) will be substantially curtailed, but he will have to pay for the "bills" that Putin is now generously distributing - to seek money "for first-borns", to be puffed up for Syria, where, after the Russian contingent is withdrawn,. But the main thing is that the successor will need - the return of Russia to the international arena ... Such a prospect only seems fantastic. In fact, this is a much more reasonable decision than another presidential term for Putin. Too great losses for the Russian elites, including the nearest Putin environment. Anyway, there is very little time left. In a few days, we will know exactly what sea Putin falls into.. I do not think that this sea is the Caspian Sea.
Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty Join also the TSN group. Blogs on facebook and follow the updates of the section!.