High oil prices will play a bad joke on the Russian currency. In November, the state received a lot of additional oil and gas revenues. Under the new rules, this money can not be spent on the development of the economy - they need to be deferred. We have foreign currency reserves, and therefore in December the financial department will purchase $ 203.9 billion rubles in the domestic market. This is a record figure since February this year, when the Ministry of Finance began to stock up in currency. Procurement will be held from December 7 to December 28. Accordingly, the daily volume of buying foreign currency will be 12.7 billion rubles, or $ 215 million at the current rate, explained in the Finance Ministry. If you count in dollars, then the record is even more impressive: the state has not bought so much currency since May-June 2015. In total, from February to December this year inclusive, expensive oil and gas additionally brought into the treasury 830 billion rubles. All this amount, of course, was transferred to dollars. Analysts warn that such a large volume of purchases of dollars will have an unprecedented pressure on the national currency. This month, the ruble and so will not be easy, so that the actions of the Ministry of Finance will be another nail in the coffin. Before the New Year, as expected, the US Federal Reserve will raise, and the Bank of Russia - will lower the rate. The population at the end of the year shows a keen interest in dollars and euros. In addition, in anticipation of a new round of sanctions around the Russian Federation, geopolitical tension is growing, and the rise in the price of oil will soon stop (it can not grow indefinitely). All these factors lead to a weakening of the ruble. Experts now argue only about when the collapse of the Russian currency will happen and what the scale of the fall will be. Head of operations at the Russian stock market IK "Freedom Finance" George Vashchenko believes that by the end of the year $ 1 will cost 60.5 rubles. "Purchases from the Ministry of Finance look just another reason to expect the ruble exchange rate after the New Year above 60, and most likely even above 65 rubles per dollar," the newspaper quotes. ru "opinion of the analyst of the company" Alor Broker "Kirill Yakovenko. "The chances of seeing the dollar at higher levels are growing.
Perhaps, plus a couple of rubles for the dollar - a justified price reaction, which we can see in December, "- says the head of the department for working with wealthy clients of the IR" Zerich Capital Management "Andrey Khokhrin.
The Finance Ministry also does not hide that the dollar's exchange rate against the ruble will grow and grow in the foreseeable future. According to the latest forecast of the department, in 2017-2020. the average nominal exchange rate of the dollar will be 64.8 rubles, in the next 5 years - 71.5 rubles, in 2026-2030. - 77.1 rubles.