It became commonplace to say that the Kremlin is loosing control over the situation, that the system is on the verge of collapse, that a collapse, a collapse, a collapse is coming ... And it seems to be true: there are signs that the autocracy, especially in its current rotting state, just can not survive in the era of global cyberspace, the belief in modernism and the victory of individualism! But you see: despite all our predictions of the impending death of the system of personal power, this design continues to hobble, while it painfully snarls, writes Lilia Shevtsova in the column on "Radio Liberty".

True, it is also noticeable that the current "holders" of the authorities are not sure how much they can withhold it. The Kremlin's transition to preventive repression, including with respect to its own political class (for no reason at all), speaks of the insecurity creeping along the Kremlin corridors. The monosubject of power clearly has an anxious feeling that in the depths of Russian society the temperature has risen. But does this mean the end of the system?.

Since so much (including myself) is written about what specifically undermines the autocracy, how the authorities shoot their extremities, let's reflect on what gives power to the force and serves as its source of adrenaline. One of the factors that creates a "safety cushion" for the Kremlin deserves special attention. I mean the discrediting of the leading ideological trends and their party design, which is the essence of normal politics. On the Russian stage, there were ugly dummies and primitive "bluffs" of parties and ideologies, which became the mechanism for the reproduction of autocracy (opposition parties and movements were forced into the political ghetto, without the possibility of influence).

A special role in the imitation of ideological and political life is played by "systemic liberals". They not only participated in the revival of the system of personal power in Russia, but they (and not the siloviki) are today the decisive force in ensuring the stability of this system. What would the Kremlin do without Nabiullina and Dvorkovich, Siluanov and Oreshkin? "Systemic liberals" not only guarantee an economic resource for a degrading construction, prolonging its life, but also deprive liberalism of the opportunity to become an alternative to autocracy in Russia.

Another support of the system is the Communist Party, which, channeling the leftist protest in a direction that is safe for the Kremlin, has become the main obstacle to the emergence of independent left-wing forces in Russia, including the Social Democracy. Thus, Russia was deprived of political movements that would protect the principles of equality and justice. Russian nationalism, in which both anti-imperial and anti-Kremlin sentiments were present only recently, was neutralized by "Crimeanashism", becoming an ally of power and losing its anti-regime sound.

And now we will think: what brings with it the discrediting in Russia of the party-ideological field? The lack of channels for expressing public sentiments leaves the population the only opportunity for self-expression - the street. This format of articulation of its interests today still scares many, and its inevitable brutality, and the threat of a response from the authorities. While scared! Power, concave the windows and close the flow of air, generates the effect of a boiling kettle with a closed lid.

And this means that the dreams of peaceful evolution with the participation of the sane part of the ruling class become unrealizable. Kudrin and his team can continue to wait their time, dreaming of returning to the government to tackle cautious economic reformism. However, the current purge of the political class no longer leaves chances either for reform initiatives among the elite, or for its fearful fraternity. The epoch of postmodernism, when the elite could serve the power, holding the figure in its pocket, was completed. The arrests of Belykh and Ulyukayev and the endless "governorate" are evidence that the time has come for "robocops" that leave no doubt about their ability to blindly subordinate.

In short, the Kremlin closed the question of reforming Russia "from above" and "from within," leaving only one scenario for the society - the scenario of a street riot. And what else can be expected if the authorities are not ready to remove the cover of the boiling kettle? Meanwhile, any mass street protest is always focused on destruction, not on creation, on radicalism, and not on compromises, on individual leadership, and not on the search for coalitions, finally on revenge, and not on forgiveness and pacification. Power, trying to secure an infinite survival, prepares a symmetrical answer. And the harder the violence is from the top today, the more powerful will be the future response of the lower classes to violence. And no one can foresee when this causal link will work - in a year, in five years? Or maybe tomorrow?.

And: the translation of public discontent into a devastating protest postpones the real transformation of the system, creating prerequisites for changing the regime of power. A regime change without changing principles leads to the reproduction of the autocracy, already with a different personification.

Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty Join also the TSN group. Blogs on facebook and follow the updates of the section!.