Nuclear blackmail - a family business of North Korean dictators, starving their people. The grandfather, who brought out his atomic complex, created by the USSR, started from under the control of the IAEA. Perfection reached the papa, waving a bucket of nuclear dumps and threats forced the West to supply Pyongyang with humanitarian supplies of energy resources, pomace for the population and exquisite food for himself, - writes Andrei Piontkovsky in the column on "Radio Liberty".
For Kim, it was primarily business, besides, vanity, the desire to attract the attention of others to appear in their eyes significant - anything, but not the regime's desire to protect itself from some external threat. Such a threat to the DPRK regime simply does not exist - or rather, did not exist until very recently, until it was finally created by its persistent efforts by Kim himself.
The attack on North Korea logistically and politically impossible without the consent and without the active participation of South Korea. The political class of South Korea is roughly equally divided into left and right. The Left, as it is accepted by useful bourgeois idiots, always with some sympathy (but at a distance, of course) treated the Kim regime, seeing in it the embodiment of their girlish Marxist dreams of social justice. Right before 1990, they really thought about the possible reunification of Korea sometime in the bright future.
But the experience of German unification, for which Western Germans had to pay a huge economic, and eastern - psychological price, sobered the Koreans. After all, compared with the two Koreas, the GDR and the FRG were identical twins: West German society digested, after all, the East German with all its problems. South Korea has no such potential now.
There was no external threat for Pyongyang. But at the same time, none of the members of the holy Kim family could feel secure. No guarantees, vows, signed treaties, sincere assurances of the accursed West could not allow the North Korean regime to provide this security. Brother Kim poisoned almost in the air. Uncle Kim was either shot or thrown to the dogs. It would have been slightly different from the palace layout, the same fate could be comprehended by the Supreme Deity himself. These are the professional risks of any dictator, and these risks can not be removed by any nuclear arsenals.
What then can explain such a rapid rise of the Korean nuclear missile program - both technological and conceptual - in the last year and a half? How can talented North Korean scientists rapidly take the barriers one by one over which their American and Soviet counterparts took years to overcome: intercontinental missiles, a hydrogen bomb, miniaturization of warheads. As a result, Pyongyang loudly declares a new strategic goal, announces the ability to destroy the hydrogen bomb of the American metropolis, "beat the US to death like a rabid dog".
What kind of reaction should Washington expect after such statements? Well, something like this, apparently: "If someone at least tries to use funds comparable to the means of mass destruction, in relation to our country, we will respond with measures that are adequate to the threat. In all places where there are terrorists, organizers of crimes, their ideological and financial inspirers. I emphasize, wherever they are ";" In such cases, and I officially confirm this, we will strike. Including preventive ".
No, no, it's not President Donald Trump and not his Secretary of Defense James Mattis. This is President Vladimir Putin and his Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov - their statements were made on September 22 and October 28, 2002, respectively. But after Putin and Ivanov in 2002, no one threatened to score "like rabid dogs". They are just so, just in case warned. So what do you want from Trump and Mattis now?.
However, almost all the American left-liberal media, who have branded Trump in such a way for Putin's philosophers, have now begun to chorus the theses on the Korean question, inspired by him from the Kremlin. The sense is this: the North Koreans were forced to create a nuclear-missile potential in order to ensure their security; in the Korean crisis there is no military solution; It is necessary to reconcile with the reality, according to which North Korea is a nuclear power. Say, nothing terrible and nothing new in this, we learned, Americans, live with the nuclear Soviet Union, and then with nuclear China.
This is a lie, almost convincing for the layman. But the professionals know that the nuclear pairs of the USSR - the US and China - the US are stable, because each side in these pairs has the possibility of a second strike, second-strike capability. Therefore, even in an acute political situation, neither side will have the incentive to strike first. The possible nuclear pair of the DPRK-US is extremely unstable. North Korea, in the midst of a crisis, will always strive to hit its limited resource as soon as possible, until the enemy has destroyed it. And the US - to eliminate this resource, until they really do not lose several million inhabitants of one of their megacities.
Moreover, the recognition by the Americans of the DPRK of a "nuclear power in the law" and the transition in its relations to a policy of mutual deterrence would mean an automatic refusal by the US of obligations towards its allies, South Korea and Japan. What kind of security guarantees can we talk about, if in the event of an attack by the DPRK on South Korea, Americans have to choose between Seoul and San Francisco? As for this inability to protect their allies, as already happened, Russian propagandists are enthusiastically speaking at their gatherings of the wicked. Rejoicing that the US strategic weakness will be noticed both by their European allies and unable to rely more on US security guarantees, Europe will have to "negotiate" with Great Putin.
This television bacchanalia with a head reveals who can stand behind the incredible "progress" of Kim Jong-un: Russia, which itself is an experienced nuclear blackmailer. The Kremlin tempts Pyongyang with a heady prospect of making Japan and South Korea helpless hostages. In this regard, Putin constantly and with great concern recalls the growing capabilities of the DPRK: North Korean artillery (about a thousand installations), concentrated along the demilitarized zone and capable of destroying Seoul. Not very convincing blackmail. If the United States decides to make a preemptive strike against Pyongyang's nuclear facilities, then they will have additional "Tomahawks" for simultaneous destruction of all this artillery. Of course, an element of risk is present in any military operation, but not to Putin and not to the Americans, but first of all the South Koreans decide whether they are willing to take this risk.
Judging by the statement of the President of the Republic of Korea, Mun Zhe In,. A week ago, a convinced liberal Moon spoke of the need for constructive dialogue with expensive compatriots. And this time he announced the possible destruction of the DPRK in case of continued reckless provocations. The risk of a joint military operation with the US appears to the Koreans less of a threat than the prospect of being left alone with a nuclear maniac.
In fact, the General Staff of the United States and South Korea, much more than North Korean artillery at the border, was concerned about another scenario. The opportunity, after a successful nuclear strike and the physical elimination of Kim Jong-no, to fall into the remake of the bloody conventional war of 1950-1953. The Chinese will necessarily intervene in such a situation, as China intervened in 1951 after the failure of Kim Il Sung's aggression, the defeat of the North Korean army and the capture of Pyongyang by UN troops. They were then completely unhappy with a single Korea under American influence on their border. I did not like it in 1951, I do not like it in 2017.
But there is a fundamental difference in the situation on the Korean peninsula, and this difference allows the US and China to find an etude solution that suits everyone. They are thinking about him, I think, but they are still embarrassed to admit this. Neither South Korea, nor the United States seeks to unite the Korean peninsula, but they really need the nuclear-free status of this region. China wants to maintain its influence in North Korea, which it views as a sort of buffer zone.
It is easy to see that the strategic objectives of the US and China are quite compatible here. After Washington and Beijing have reached an understanding on the goals and methods of resolving the Korean crisis, the scenario for achieving it will become a purely technical task. No longer fearing the prospect of the emergence of united Korea and American troops at their side, a good Chinese investigator will be able to significantly increase his economic and political pressure on Pyongyang.
If this is not enough, the evil American investigator, no longer fearing the prospect of a military confrontation with China, can afford to use force arguments. One way or another, a pro-Chinese government will be in power in Pyongyang, which will renounce the nuclear missile program of its predecessors. As an additional bonus for the Chinese, South Korea in response will refuse to deploy a missile defense system on its territory.
The historically savvy reader will notice that this plan resembles the Munich collusion, the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, the Yalta section of Europe. And it will be wrong. The uniqueness of the Korean deal between China and the United States is that it will not have a side-victim. South Korea is getting rid of the mortal danger and is getting more opportunities for humanitarian and economic contacts with the North. For the North Koreans, the communist dictatorship of the Chinese spill will seem like a fertile thaw after the reign of Kim. It is this social pressure chamber that this country needs for 20-30 years, before the new generation ponders about unification with South Korea.
Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty Join also the TSN group. Blogs on facebook and follow the updates of the section!.