On July 21, Vladimir Putin, answering the question of Russian schoolchildren about what he is going to do when he retires, said: "I have not decided yet whether to leave the post of president".

In March 2018 Putin will again participate in the presidential race and will definitely win. His rating of trust today exceeds 80%, and the Russian opposition - has long been pushed into the background. If Putin wins the election, his next presidential term will end only in 2024. By the time he turns 72 years old, writes Professor Wesley University (USA) Peter Rutland.

Working back in the 1980s in the Soviet Union, I saw how it was impossible to remove ineffective political leaders from power. As a result, this led to stagnation, and then to the collapse of the entire Soviet system. Will such a scenario be repeated in modern Russia?.

Follow the leader!.

Given the problems that Moscow is facing now, it is clear why Putin does not want to hand over the reins to his successor. The world oil price stuck at around $ 50 per barrel, the Russian economy almost stopped growing. Moreover, Russia is still under Western sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. However, by 2024 the problem of finding a successor will again be relevant.

The Constitution of the Russian Federation requires that Putin resign after two presidential terms in a row. But this issue was elegantly resolved back in 2008, when Putin's protege Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev took over as president. Putin also returned to the post of head of state in 2012, apparently understanding that Medvedev is not so good in running the country.

Now analysts are wondering whether the political regime created under Putin will be able to survive after his departure. Many believe that the government is so tightly tied up with Putin and his entourage that another person simply can not replace him. Much is on the map. It is likely that the very next day after the departure of the current Russian leader, the Kremlin will begin events like those that occurred in the 90s in Russia.

Nevertheless, it is important to remember that Putin is not the head of a single ruling party, as it was under the Soviet Union. Russian journalist Mikhail Zygar compares the president of the Russian Federation with a broker, balancing the interests of rival clans - oligarchs, regional bosses, law enforcement officers and technocrats. These are people who once brought Putin to power, and without cooperation with which nothing happens in Russia.

There are rules of the game. Oligarchs stay away from politics, and are thus protected from seizing their assets by the state.

For many years, Putin skillfully expanded his powers, but there are limits to this. Russian analysts talk about "collective Putin" or "Politburo 2". 0 "- people from the entourage of the president, in whose hands the power is concentrated.

But in order to take its place in Russian history - and this is clearly a thirst for Putin - he must solve problems with his successor. He must guarantee personal security and wealth of Putin and his entourage. Apparently, Putin once promised the same to his predecessor Boris Yeltsin and his family. Putin is also likely to first "test" a person as a prime minister, before appointing him head of state. This is the way that the Russian president himself took place in 1999.

Who is next?.

Dmitry Medvedev, the current Russian prime minister, is unlikely to return to the presidency. He is not a very popular figure. In addition, he recently became the hero of the documentary investigation film filmed by opposition leader Alexei Navalny, which details the personal wealth of Medvedev, including the possession of a vineyard in Tuscany. Since the release of this film on YouTube in March 2017, it was viewed more than 23 million times, which had a negative impact on Medvedev's ratings.

However, in Russia there are three people potentially capable of becoming Putin's successors.

The current Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Now he is the second most popular politician in Russia after Putin. But he has no experience in business and international politics.

Sergei Sobyanin, Mayor of Moscow. Previously, he headed the oil-rich province of Khanty-Mansiysk.

Yuri Trutnev, former governor of the Perm region and minister of natural resources. Currently, he is deputy prime minister, an intelligent and reliable manager.

By the way, both Shoigu and Sobyanin can face problems because of their origin, since both come from small ethnic groups. And many Russians have many negative stereotypes about representatives of ethnic minorities. This can affect the ratings.

In any case, Putin should create conditions as soon as possible for a peaceful transition of power. This would be the best option for Russia.

Translation of HB.