This is stated in the next review report, prepared by the head of the Center for Political Education, political scientist Andrei Lyakhovich, writes the Belarusian partisan.

The report notes that the approach of the presidential elections in Russia was an important reason why the Putin administration went to meet the Belarusian side during the April oil and gas talks. However, after the presidential elections in Russia, the contradictions on the issues of oil and gas supplies will be actualized, t. Kremlin subsidies to official Minsk.

"Likely, Lukashenko expects that the movement of Ukraine towards the EU and NATO significantly strengthens Belarus' positions on all these aspects of relations with Russia. In addition, Russia is getting more and more reasons to doubt the strength of its positions in Central Asia. In May, the President of Kazakhstan, N. Nazarbayev said that by 2025 the Kazakh language will be finally translated into the Latin alphabet. Moscow says that Kazakhstan is moving away from Russia. Lukashenko has repeatedly stated that Belarus is Russia's only ally, "Andrei Lyakhovich recalls..

However, the political scientist believes, there have been important changes that could lead to the fact that the factors that Lukashenka has always assessed as constraints, barriers to pressure from Russia, will be the reasons for Moscow's pressure. Russia will once again try to reliably bind Belarus to itself, make it an ally, a loyal vassal.

The main difference, Andrey Lyakhovich believes, is that the Kremlin is increasingly beginning to say that Belarus is no longer an ally of Russia.

In June 2002, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the most understandable option for Russians to integrate Belarus and Russia is to join Russia as a federation subject. Russia made several attempts to secure Belarus reliably, suggested that the Belarusian leadership take several steps towards the present, according to Moscow, integration. Sell ??large enterprises to Russian companies. Combine monetary systems. Create supranational bodies within the union state of Belarus and Russia with the dominance of Russian representatives, whose decisions would be binding on both sides (t. De facto - decisions of the Russian government for Belarus). Place Russian military bases on the territory of Belarus.

These claims of Russia to Belarus, reminds the political scientist, were the basis of the gas conflict in January 2004, when Russia completely stopped gas supplies to Belarus. In 2009-2010, when there was an oil conflict and several "dairy", "meat" trade wars. Oil and gas conflicts, trade wars were accompanied by an information campaign of Russian media. Lukashenka then said that, at the Kremlin's order, the Russian media poured dirt on the Belarusian leadership.

"Russian officials have repeatedly stated that Belarus receives a lot of economic support from Russia, while in a number of important issues it does not support Russia. However, until 2014, the Russian establishment and the Kremlin-servicing media did not say that Belarus is moving away from Russia.

But since 2014, programs of Russian TV channels often say that the same processes are going on in Belarus as in Ukraine, and if not, in 20-30 years Belarus, like Ukraine, will be lost to Russia, "stated Andrei Lyakhovich.

In particular, he cited the example of a statement made by Bohdan Bezpalko, a member of the presidium of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of Russia, Deputy Director of the Center for Ukrainian Studies and Belarusian Studies of the Moscow State University. He, speaking in the program of one of the Russian TV channels in January 2017, said: "If we take ideological, military-political, economic criteria, then Belarus is no longer an ally.

Identity, which is created in this territory, in the last few years is acquiring an increasingly anti-Russian character. This is the main reason for the divergence of the positions of Belarus and Russia ".

As the head of the Center for Political Education notes, a special irritation of Russian analysts is the timid return of Belarus to the national history and attributes.

"Insufficient, extremely inconsistent, completely inadequate actions by the authorities to popularize the Belarusian language, Belarusian culture, Belarusian symbols (meaning" embroidered ") only optimists can call" soft Belarusianization ". However, even this "soft Belarusianization" becomes the main contradiction in relations with Russia, "Andrei Lyakhovich.