Washington and Ankara will reconcile Qatar with its neighbors

14 June 2017, 01:46 | Policy 
фото с YTPO.ru

Presidents of Turkey and US Tayyip Erdogan and Donald Trump will discuss the situation around Qatar in the coming days, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu.

Erdogan himself said on Tuesday that "the situation with Qatar led us to serious mistakes," and turning the people of the whole country into a pariah is inhumane and not Islamic. "Qatar is a country that together with Turkey demonstrates the greatest determination in the fight against the IG. Let's not deceive each other.. The region does not benefit from making a defendant from Qatar, "the Turkish leader said..

Given the ambiguous role of both countries in the Qatari crisis, the question arises: whether to wait for these negotiations to benefit in the settlement of the current situation, or, on the contrary, its aggravation? On the one hand, Turkey's pro-Turkish stance is obvious, on the other, the crisis began after a visit to the region by Donald Trump. Will not it turn out that Ankara and Washington are rooting for different teams?.

Political scientist, historian, president of the Moscow Center for the Study of Public Law Ajdar Kurtov is sure that the US and Turkey have common ground on which they can agree and work out a joint position to mitigate this crisis. Both countries are interested in its relatively painless liquidation for their interests, said the expert "Utru".

The Americans in Qatar have the largest military base, and they do not need a deteriorating social situation with unpredictable consequences in this country. Turkey is also associated with Qatar's economic interests, in addition, Erdogan saw in the Qatari crisis the opportunity to once again demonstrate his position as a contender for regional leadership, believes the expert. Therefore, according to him, the agreements are possible, and there are ways of influencing Qatar both in Turkey and, especially, in the States. The conversation is likely to be about using these mechanisms and leverage - while Qatar may have to give up something (for example, to publicly apologize for the story with the ransom paid by Doha to the Iranians and jihadists for the release of the abducted members of the royal families).

Earlier experts noted that in order to understand the further strategy for Qatar it is necessary to find out the reasons for the crisis. If we are talking about "disassemblies" between emirs of Saudi Arabia and Qatar - one foreshortening, if it is a question of some serious interests of large external players - another. For his part, Ajdar Kurtov stresses: the crisis was impulsive enough, but the official reason - accusations of supporting terrorism - can be addressed not only to Qatar, but also to the main initiator of anti-Qatar measures, Saudi Arabia. "From the outside it looks like" a thief from a thief stole a truncheon, "since many conservative regimes of the Persian Gulf countries are guilty of supporting terrorism," said the analyst "Utru".

At the same time, neither Turkey nor the US benefits from at least one aspect of this conflict - namely, the activity of the Iranians, who are trying to help Qatar. Strengthening of Qatari-Iranian ties, as we know, sounded as one of the charges brought against Qatar, and the ongoing further rapprochement between the positions of Doha and Tehran, albeit temporary, is highly undesirable for a number of regional players. Nor is Ankara and Washington delighted with this, so they need to hurry in agreeing methods to stop this conflict as soon as possible, the expert points out..

The question arises: if this goal is not quickly achieved, is it possible to "activate" the Iran-Qatar friendship, and to what extent? According to the interlocutor of "Utra", the rapprochement may continue, especially since Qatar and Iran unite the same frontier largest gas field, which in Qatar is called the North Dome, and in Iran - South Pars. Willy-nilly Doha and Tehran need to agree on its exploitation - which is currently more successful Qatar, but Iran is also interested in this. Therefore, good-neighborly relations between them are inevitable, but military-political alliances are not on the agenda, so as not to anger the neighbors once again. In Tehran, they soberly assess the situation and will not take drastic steps, otherwise the barely-established relationship between Doha and Tehran will be threatened, and new accusations of betraying the interests of Sunnis and cooperation with a country trying to implant in the Middle East Shiite form of Islam.

At the same time, Iran will try to help Qatar in the hope that he will not forget kindness and will remain to some extent a debtor, but then Tehran will demand repayment of the debt, the analyst believes..

Источник: YTPO.ru