Euphoria from the annexation of the Crimea from the Russians has significantly weakened under the onslaught of socio-economic problems caused by a fall in oil prices and Western sanctions for the occupation of Ukrainian territories. The Crimean theme is losing its relevance and the only thing that still does not allow to forget about the peninsula is the construction of the Kerch bridge, which by right in Russia claims to be the "construction of the century", writes Evgenia Goryunova in the column on "Crimea. Realities ".
The main tone in shaping not only politics but also public opinion in Russia is asked by its president. That's why Putin's speeches perfectly demonstrate the attitude of the Russian authorities, and after it - and Russian society, to the Crimean issue. So, in December 2014, in the annual message of Vladimir Putin to the Federal Assembly, the Crimean theme was key - the Russian president used the words "Crimea" and "Crimean" 13 times.
He spoke about the historical significance of the "reunification" of the peninsula with Russia, emphasizing the legitimate nature of the March "referendum". On the sacred role of the Crimea in the history of Russia, appealing to the baptism of Prince Vladimir of Kiev in Chersonesos. He promised the Crimea "paradise life", talking about the adopted programs for the development of the peninsula. "Here favorable conditions will be created for the development of business, agrarian and tourist industries, industry and maritime transport," the owner of the Kremlin assured the Crimeans.
However, a year later the theme of the Crimea faded against the background of the military operation in Syria, and Putin in his next speech referred to the peninsula a couple of times, focusing on the "fateful" significance of annexation for Russia. "We have repeatedly faced a principled, fateful choice of the path of further development. And another such milestone was in 2014, when the reunification of Crimea and Sevastopol with Russia took place, "the Russian president said pathetically, considering the act of violation of international law as a sign of the strength of the Russian nation, consolidated by" common values ??and common goals ".
But in December 2016 in Putin's speech the theme of the Crimea flashed just once - in the context of building a bridge across the Kerch Strait. And this means that interest in the Crimea will continue to weaken. The fact is that the peninsula has already fulfilled its "sacred" role in uniting Russians and raising the rating of the Russian president.
Russians about Crimea are reminded annually in February-March by carrying out of sociological interrogations. Every year the number of Russians who are confident that "Crimea is Russia" is growing: from 89% in March 2014 to 97% in 2017.
But regarding the benefits of annexation, the opinions of Russians differ depending on who is conducting the opinion polls. According to VTsIOM, for three years the number of supporters of the positive influence of Crimea's "entry" into Russia increased from 75 to 78%, and according to polls of Levada Center, on the contrary, it decreased from 70% to 64%.
By the way, the number of those who saw in the annexation negative for Russia, according to VTsIOM, during 2014-16. Increased, and in 2017 sharply decreased - from 22 to 13%. What influenced such metamorphoses in the minds of Russians is hard to say: whether the power of propaganda, whether the implementation of Comrade Stalin's recommendations and the "correct" calculation. The Levada Center data show a steady increase in the number of people dissatisfied with annexation, from 18 to 23% in three years.
On the other hand, the number of Russians who are ready for additional financial spending for the sake of the Crimea is declining. According to polls by the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center, the number of those who oppose the additional allocation of funds for the "new Russian region" in 2017 reached 84%, having increased by 21% in three years,. More than half of the respondents of the Levada Center (55%) are categorically against the financing of the Crimea by reducing the funds for the implementation of social programs in Russia. In general, the logic of Russians regarding the peninsula is simple: Crimea, of course, is ours, but we do not want to keep it - let them earn.
No less interesting and tourist dynamics on the peninsula, which has ceased to be for Russians abroad. In 2014-16 he. The inhabitants of Russia went to the Crimea out of patriotic motives or out of curiosity. And many were expecting disappointment, which Russians threw out on the pages of the blogosphere. Tourist Crimea was not "sacred" at all, but "shovel", Crimeans - greedy "Khokhlis" who, instead of meeting "liberators" with bread and salt, began to tear off three skins from them in conditions of a decrease in tourist traffic.
High prices and low service overshadowed patriotic feelings, so when Turkey again became accessible to Russians, they immediately abandoned the Crimea. As a result, on May holidays, which in Crimea have always been considered a rehearsal for the holiday season, in 2017, 38% fewer tourists came to the peninsula than last year.
The only thing that still evokes the interest of Russians is the construction of the Kerch bridge, which in Russia became the "construction of the century", like the Soviet analogue in the form of the Baikal-Amur Mainline. And while the bridge is being built, the Crimea will continue to flash for some time in the Russian air space, although it is by no means a topical topic. And if problems arise with the construction site, they will immediately forget about it, especially since the launch of the bridge should take place after the presidential election, which is likely to become a "swan song" for the Crimean theme.
Probably, the date of the election of the Russian president will still be postponed until the day of the official annexation of Crimea to ascertain Putin's next victory. After another ascension to the throne, the Russian president will have no time for Crimea at all.
And in fact, Russia's "Crimean victory" turned out to be more like a Pyrrhic one both on the domestic front (a sharp decline in the level of socioeconomic development) and internationally - for three years Putin never managed to get the Russian peninsula's recognition at least at the de-facto level, Facto.
Putin's regime desperately needs quick results. At the first stage, everything was fine with the Crimea, but it was not possible to achieve a legal change of its status in the international arena in the Kremlin: the West refuses to recognize Crimea as Russian and at every opportunity reminds that the peninsula must be returned to Ukraine. And it is frantically annoying Putin, whose party on the world chess board is coming to a lamentable ending.
Therefore, for the Russian leader in this case, the best way is to think less about the Crimea as rarely as possible, leaving the role of the coveted trophy in the series of "victories" of the dictator for the peninsula. Remaining annexed, instead of the "Order of the Planet Earth", Crimea risks becoming a new backwater of Russia, to which no one will care.
Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty Join also the TSN group. Blogs on facebook and follow the updates of the section!.