The moment of truth for a united Europe has come - literally at this time in France the political future of one of the main pillars of the EU is being decided, and the fate of the drowning in the insoluble problems of the Old World depends on who gets the "keys" from the Elysee Palace today.

In the second round of the presidential election, two candidates came together - the founder of the Vperyod movement, the former French minister of economy Emmanuel Macron and leader of the National Front party Marin Le Pen.

Despite the fact that the results of the vote have not yet been summed up, most experts are already giving the palm to Makron, basing their conclusions on the fact that in the second round all the opponents of nationalists will unite to support him, in order to prevent the coming into power of such an odious politician as Le Pen.

However, to say that everything is exceptionally smooth for Macron would be wrong.

It's no secret that the main and most effective weapon against politicians in Western society is compromising material. It was thanks to him that the careers of dozens and hundreds of famous people were destroyed.

Until recently, this cup bypassed Emmanuel Macron side. However, a few days before the election there was information about the offshore accounts of the candidate, which definitely adds intrigue to the seemingly foregone process.

"Provocations in these elections are pouring down from the cornucopia," the candidate of historical sciences, expert of the Center for Crisis Society Studies Alexander Vershinin. - Under the gun were hardly all candidates. In general, this is what confuses us in the so-called "conspiracy theory", which is actively circulating both in France and abroad during the current campaign. It is alleged that Macron is almost the successor of Hollande, and the incumbent president, with the support of certain forces, is doing everything possible to "push through".

If this is so, then all the stuffing done in the interests of Macron is a boomerang on himself, says the expert.. Under the blow was not any one candidate, but the entire political elite. Sin had always followed her before, but they never had a mass exposure on the presidential campaign and were not accompanied by such scandals.

"Most likely, we are dealing with the domino effect," says Alexander Vershinin. - One corruption scandal entails the following. As a result, there is a funnel that threatens to suck in itself hardly the entire French political class ".

According to the expert, Macron does not have any immunity here. But on the eve of the second round, it is unlikely that any new exposure will affect the available spreads. All bets have already been made, and changing the balance of power can only be something out of the ordinary. History with offshore Macron - obviously not from this number.

The expert community is inclined to believe that the outcome of the current elections is predetermined in advance. The results of the debate between Macron and Le Pen, held a few days ago. However, in this case too, it is not necessary to hurry with the conclusions.

"The Golden Rule" of the French political system - practice t. Republican front, "says Alexander Vershinin. - Its meaning is that in the second round of elections (and not only presidential but also parliamentary elections are held in two rounds in France), all parties, however strong the contradictions between them, unite against the anti-system force - the National Front. This is not too democratic, because as a result, the votes of a large part of the voters simply disappear. Thus, the republican front built a high wall on the path of the Lepenists to parliament. Despite the high ratings of Marin Le Pen, her party has only two deputies there. However, until now this scheme has maintained political stability in the country.

By all accounts, its potential has not yet been exhausted. Against Le Pen today will really unite all the major political forces of the country, which should provide Macro about 60% of the vote. But the most general analysis shows that the republican front has seriously weakened over the last decade and a half. 40% of the votes for Le Pen in the second round on May 7 - it's a lot of ".

According to the expert, it is even more important that there is a trend towards an increase in the number of people who are ready, in principle, to vote for it. Therefore, pure figures say little about the true mood of the French. It is possible that the mid-term vote on May 7 will be so unfavorable for them that in five years we will see a very different picture.

The fact that even in case of Macron's complete victory, his political future will be more than difficult and unstable, says the fact that few experts believe that the likely president will be able to cope with the main problems facing France and the whole EU. One of them is the problem of migrants.

If the victory is won, the Macron of France will have to be built into the policy on migrants that Germany is now implementing, Vershinin believes. Those ideas with which Makron goes to the polls, do not promise here any fracture. Migrants will continue to try to adapt to the conditions of life in French society and still this course will not have any serious results.

"Unfortunately, it is impossible to solve the issue of migrants at the root of the existing legal and political context in France today and, more broadly, in Europe," says the expert.. - For this, it is necessary to reconsider a number of fundamental principles on which the European rule of law and the European Integration Project. Voters understand this instinctively and therefore vote for Le Pen with her radical proposals in this area. However, for the establishment of such an option there is no ".

Practically there is no doubt that after receiving the cherished presidential chair, Macron will face active popular protests, which are in France a very popular way of expressing dissatisfaction with the policy of the authorities.

"Makron has virtually no chance of avoiding social unrest, not only because of his views on the problems of migrants," says Alexander Vershinin. - In the eyes of the French, he is too tightly associated with the outgoing president and his unpopular policy. At the same time, Macron, if elected, will have to take even more unpopular steps, including those that Hollande himself could not afford, which in fact had nothing to lose in the last year or two. In the situation of actual absence under his feet of social soil (his voters are a random conglomeration of very different people) this will not slow down the effect of ".

Thus, with almost complete certainty it can be said that under President Macron, France is almost certainly waiting for social upheavals with an unpredictable outcome.

As for what the Russian-French relations will be in the case of the victory of Macron in the elections, here one must understand that foreign policy in general and relations with Russia in particular are on the periphery of Macron's attention.

The likely president does not understand this problem very well, and it certainly does not seem to him as important as the economy or domestic policy.

"Most likely, we will see the continuation of the course of Hollande: France will continue to follow in the wake of Berlin and Washington, which will create an agenda for relations between the West and Moscow," says Vershinin. - For France, this role is not too honorable and certainly unpleasant. Paris is accustomed to playing one of the first violins in international affairs, including setting the tone for the relations of Europeans with Russia ".

But to date, in order to continue to play this role, France needs a new political horizon, a new vision of its own place in the world. Macron suggests that she integrate into existing models. It's good or bad, but the French in this case will have to get used to the role of "strong middling" in world affairs.